Isaac King's Guessing Game
28
3.8kṀ1998
6666
77%
You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere
53%
You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does
49%
The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character
49%
you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person
41%
You tend to wear the same outfit every day.
32%
You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy
8%
You are qorrenqial
Resolved
YES
You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano
Resolved
YES
You're older than me (I'm 23)
Resolved
YES
Isaac likes experimenting
Resolved
YES
You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)
Resolved
YES
You've been in a desert once
Resolved
YES
(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)
Resolved
YES
You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question
Resolved
90%
You think it's fine for minors to date adults
Resolved
70%
You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

Here's how this works:

  • Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.

  • If I don't want to answer the question, I'll resolve the option to N/A. (I'm generally pretty open about stuff.)

  • Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and to PROB if it was partly right and partly wrong.

  • Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. I won't bet on the options before resolving then.

  • I will generally wait for several people to trade in an option before resolving it.

  • This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.

Have at it!

Thanks to @firstuserhere for this market idea. You can find their original market here.

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