Isaac King's Guessing Game

Personal•Fun•Personal guessing games

514

Ṁ1.9K

Ṁ3.8K

6666

ALL

74%

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

53%

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

49%

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

48%

You're an effective altruist

42%

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

41%

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

40%

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

32%

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

20%

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

Resolved

YES

Isaac likes experimenting

Resolved

YES

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

Resolved

YES

You've been in a desert once

Resolved

YES

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

Resolved

YES

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

Resolved

YES

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

Resolved

YES

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

Resolved

YES

You're older than me (I'm 23)

Resolved

YES

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

Resolved

YES

You're younger than 30

Resolved

90%

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

Here's how this works:

Anyone can submit a free response option in the form of a guess that they have about me. It can be about anything - guesses about my music taste, my research interests, my sleep habits, etc.

If I don't want to answer the question, I'll resolve the option to N/A. (I'm generally pretty open about stuff.)

Otherwise, I'll resolve to YES if the guess was right, NO if the guess was wrong, and to PROB if it was partly right and partly wrong.

Between the option being submitted and me actually seeing and resolving it, you (and other traders) can spend mana to try to make a profit. If you're confident in a guess, buy YES - if you think someone has it wrong, buy NO. I won't bet on the options before resolving then.
I will generally wait for several people to trade in an option before resolving it.

This continues indefinitely, because the market doesn't close when I resolve an individual option.

Have at it!

Thanks to @firstuserhere for this market idea. You can find their original market here.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

[???]'s Guessing Game: Guess facts about my D&D character

@Catnee's Guessing Game

CodeandSolder's Guessing Game (subsidized)

Binary Induction Game v1

[Experimental]: BTE Guessing Game

cc6's guessing game

guessing game (free mana?)

Ṁ203 bounty

How will Isaac King resolve his "What is the largest number?" market?

25 Comments

24 Holders

221 Trades

Sort by:

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

I like them both. Dogs are more friendly. Cats might attack at any moment.

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

Difficult to remember. I once tried to read the whole Harry Potter series in a day (don't remember where I succeeded; may have only gotten to book 5 or 6), but that's not a single book. I suspect it hasn't happened, but I'm not sure.

You're younger than 30

@AmmonLam You have to submit it as an answer

You've read the CFAR Handbook

I had skimmed a few pages, and put it on my list of "books I'd eventually like to read but realistically won't have time for any time soon".

You've been to a nightclub

Not that I remember at least.

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

I try to make more imaginative jokes than this.

Surprisingly though, none of my friends who frequently make rather unimaginative jokes about my name have done this either.

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

Fine in general, not fine when the minor was pressured into it or is not mentally capable of understanding the situation. (<12 years old or thereabouts.)

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

I was really tempted to misresolve this to YES.

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

I HAVE PERSONALLY NEVER THOUGHT THIS BUT I AM GOING TO START DOING SO NOW

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

Can't say for sure, but seems unlikely. I don't have many close friends, and they're all pretty reasonable people.

(I think this answer being at 60% was people correctly noting that I have many controversial beliefs, but failing to update on the fact that I'm very public about those beliefs, so I'll pretty quickly drive away anyone who finds that to be a deal-breaker.)

You know >4 programming langauges

So much mana lying on the table for those willing to do some research...

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/what-programming-language-or-large

@IsaacKing I dare to say it's not that simple with 1.9K markets

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

No preference either way.

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

I know English, am decent but not fluent at French. I know bits and pieces of Hebrew and German, but not enough to be useful.

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

My house contains upwards of 100 stuffed animals, but none of them are mine.

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

Would be nice to convert mana into money, but buying a car seems like a very inefficient way to do that. I don't need a car nor have enough mana to afford one that way.

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

How was this only at 60%? You people aren't even trying.

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

My father's a professor of mathematics, my mother's a linguist, and my sister's studying criminal psychology. In a pure IQ sense I'm probably second after my dad.

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

@IsaacKing

"Think about" is a low bar, pretty much any "think about" answer will resolve YES.

Even this one?

@bohaska This might be a self-fulfilling prophecy

@bohaska Well I've thought about it now! How should I resolve answers that were false before I saw them, but true before I could click the "resolve" button?