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MANIFOLD
Will Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
26
Ṁ1kṀ2k
2029
30%
chance

The Secretary of War William Belknap was impeached even after resigning in 1876. Will Peter Hegseth follow suit?

Resolves YES on impeachment, regardless of what the Senate does. If he leaves office in other manner or serves the whole Trump term, without an impeachment process having been initiated, resolves NO. Any impeachment process started in the timeframe can result in YES, when the process ends, is not material.

  • Update 2026-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Introducing articles of impeachment alone is not sufficient to resolve YES. The bar for YES requires more than just articles being introduced.

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filled a Ṁ83 YES at 37% order

@JussiVilleHeiskanen How about articles being introduced?

Any impeachment process started in the timeframe can result in YES, when the process ends, is not material.

@Quroe no, that is too low a bar.