Resolution Criteria

Pete Hegseth is the 29th United States Secretary of Defense since 2025. This market resolves YES if Hegseth is impeached by the House of Representatives by December 31, 2027. Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House. Resolution will be determined by official House records and news reports from major outlets confirming passage of articles of impeachment.

Background

Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) introduced articles of impeachment accusing Hegseth of "Murder and Conspiracy to Murder and Reckless and Unlawful Mishandling of Classified Information." The charges relate to military strikes against an alleged narco-boat off the Venezuelan coast on September 2, followed by a second strike that killed survivors of the initial attack, and Hegseth's sharing of real-time information on American troops' movements in a group chat that included The Atlantic's editor-in-chief, discussing strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

Considerations

Democrats cannot impeach Hegseth on their own and will need Republican votes to force articles to the floor for a vote. If the House did vote on impeachment, Republicans would need to break from party lines for the articles to be sent to the Senate for trial. Since Republicans control the House and the White House, they would also have to break from President Trump to impeach one of his cabinet officials. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said it is almost impossible for these articles to see the House floor.