Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
Will Donald Trump be impeached by the House of Representatives during his second term?
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1kṀ37842029
53%
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This question resolves YES if the US House of Representatives votes to pass articles of impeachment against Donald Trump between his inauguration on 20 Jan 2025 and the end of his term of office on January 20, 2029.
This question resolves NO if impeachment by the House has not occurred and it is 21 Jan 2025, or if Donald Trump ceases to be US President for other reasons (e.g. death, resignation) and therefore cannot be impeached.
Note that this question resolves YES to the House of Representatives voting for impeachment alone, and does not require Senate conviction or removal from office.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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