This question will resolve yes if parties which support independence win the majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament in the next election, which due to be held on Thursday 7 May 2026.

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 81% chance (15 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).

Will independence supporting parties maintain a majority in the next Scottish Parliament Election?

In the next Scottish Parliamentary Election, due in 2026, what %age of the seats will each party win?

Will pro-independence parties win a majority of seats at the 2026 Welsh election?

73% chance

Will the Scottish Labour Party be the second largest party in Holyrood after the next election?

43% chance

Which party will finish second in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

How many MSPs will the Scottish Greens get at the next Scottish Parliament election?

Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass?

53% chance

If Labour wins the next UK election will there be a Scottish independence referendum announced during that parliament?

16% chance

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

78% chance

If Reform wins the next UK election will there be a Scottish independence referendum announced during that parliament?

20% chance