Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass? | Manifold

Will the next Scottish independence referendum pass?

37

1kṀ2198

2029

50%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will stay open until it resolves. Resolves YES if a referendum passes, NO if it fails, N/A if a referendum becomes irrelevant.

Scottish independence

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Almost arbitragable (resolves N/A if none by 2050):

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