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MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
151
Ṁ3.5kṀ190k
Nov 4
98.8%
Alabama
98.8%
Wyoming
98.6%
Oklahoma
98.3%
West Virginia
98%
Kentucky
98%
Tennessee
97%
Idaho
96%
South Dakota
96%
Arkansas
91%
Louisiana
90%
Florida (Special)
88%
Montana
88%
Mississippi
73%
South Carolina
68%
Nebraska
56%
Iowa
47%
Kansas
31%
Alaska
31%
Maine
30%
Ohio (Special)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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opened a Ṁ250 NO at 86% order

Limit orders on Florida, South Dakota and South Carolina!

The Democratic nominee in Idaho dropped out of the race.

https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/

Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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