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MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
118
Ṁ3.4kṀ96k
Nov 4
96%
West Virginia
96%
Alabama
96%
Wyoming
96%
Idaho
95%
Arkansas
95%
Oklahoma
94%
Tennessee
93%
South Dakota
92%
Louisiana
92%
Kentucky
88%
Mississippi
86%
South Carolina
82%
Kansas
81%
Montana
80%
Florida (Special)
64%
Nebraska
61%
Iowa
58%
Texas
45%
Ohio (Special)
41%
Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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US Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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