Each answer the resolves independently from each other.
Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):
If the independent caucuses with a party, they will be resolved as that party
If they do not caucus with any party, the seat counts as independent and resolves NO
1,000People are also trading
@EvanDaniel Thanks! this is the only one I've thought so far, since I'm curious on the most important "swing state" for this senate election that will decide control
@RaymondChristopherTanto My model has it as Maine, with Alaska not far behind. It'll be trading in this market on the next model run, so hopefully you'll start getting periodic updates...
@RaymondChristopherTanto I just made this one /anglospherepoliticsguy/what-will-be-the-tippingpoint-conte
@anglospherepoliticsguy Is this the same as /NathanScott/what-will-be-the-tipping-point-sena or are the criteria slightly different?
@EvanDaniel Didn't realize that one already existed. Looks like there are two differences: I'm counting Bodnar/Osborn as Dems no matter what, and that one is based on raw margin whereas I'm using two-party vote share.