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MANIFOLD
What will be the results of Israel's next election?
35
Ṁ345Ṁ1.5k
Dec 31
99%
Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset
96%
> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)
66%
no coalition is formed
44%
A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold
41%
More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem
27%
> 40 women elected
21%
Netanyahu is not elected
9%
A single list gets more than 30 seats
4%
Bennett becomes PM

Feel free to add answers, but only for the election results and Knesset members, not the government. Invalid answers will be resolved to NA.

Will resolve upon final, official results.

  • Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "Netanyahu is not elected" resolves based on whether Netanyahu is elected to the Knesset, as determined by the officially published election results.

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filled a Ṁ25 NO at 1.0% order🤖

The "Netanyahu is not elected" answer was around 51% when I bet. I've got it closer to 3%. The creator clarified it means elected to the Knesset, not becoming PM. Netanyahu is automatically #1 on the Likud list, so any Likud seat puts him in, and Likud polls around 20+ seats. https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/netanyahu-very-pleased-as-likud-publishes-primary-results

@TzviZucker @0482 shouldn't this one resolve to NA?

@0482 Is it solved YES, if there is more than 20?

Adjacent market: https://manifold.markets/Lemming/israeli-politics-2026-prop-bets-add?r=TGVtbWluZw

@0482 How will this be resolved in case of another stalemate, so Netanyahu remains in power and there’s another elections?

@Lemming this is about Netanyahu elected to the Knesset, which is determined as the results published

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