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MANIFOLD
Large states redistrict before 2026 midterms?
28
Ṁ1kṀ22k
Nov 3
0.5%
None of Texas, California, and New York
1%
Texas, but neither California nor New York
0.5%
California or New York, but not Texas
98%
Texas, as well as California or New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

  • Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until the midterms (November 2026) to resolve this market, rather than resolving when redistricting events occur earlier.

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@traders Have the redistrictings "happened" such that this market should resolve? Conditions could still change between now and the midterms (i.e. there's a lawsuit against Calif seeking to block prop 50), but the wording on this seems to be for redistricting events, rather than the final state on election day.

@DanHomerick my plan was to wait for the midterms to resolve

California passed Prop 50. As I understand it, if Texas does their mid-census redistricting, that will trigger California to do theirs. Not really sure of Texas' status.

bought Ṁ50 NO

NY has no technical ability to redistrict before 2027.

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