Large states redistrict before 2026 midterms?
18
1kṀ13k
2026
15%
None of Texas, California, and New York
1.5%
Texas, but neither California nor New York
19%
California or New York, but not Texas
65%
Texas, as well as California or New York

Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts.

  • Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until the midterms (November 2026) to resolve this market, rather than resolving when redistricting events occur earlier.

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@traders Have the redistrictings "happened" such that this market should resolve? Conditions could still change between now and the midterms (i.e. there's a lawsuit against Calif seeking to block prop 50), but the wording on this seems to be for redistricting events, rather than the final state on election day.

@DanHomerick my plan was to wait for the midterms to resolve

California passed Prop 50. As I understand it, if Texas does their mid-census redistricting, that will trigger California to do theirs. Not really sure of Texas' status.

bought Ṁ50 NO

NY has no technical ability to redistrict before 2027.

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Which states will enact (further) mid-decade redistricting prior to the 2030 redistricting?
Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?
+8% 1d58% chance
Will Texas use its 2021 map for the 2026 midterms?
48% chance
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms?
Will SCOTUS intervene directly in Texas redistricting before Nov 2026?
+13% 1d30% chance
Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
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48% chance
will maryland redistrict by the end of 2026?
37% chance
US state adopts shortest splitline algorithm for redistricting before 2030?
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