Virginia redistricting before midterms?

Question

This market resolves yes if Virginia uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

There is a current attempt in Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting, similar to several other states. This is particularly complicated in Virginia, because they currently have a bipartisan redistricting commission and passing a constitutional amendment is more difficult than in California. The steps needed (to my understanding:

Pass resolution in current special session

Pass resolution in a new session after the election (so early next year)

Organize a special election to pass a ballot measure in time for the midterms

Pass said ballot measure

Survive any legal challenges

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (33 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).

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