MANIFOLD
Virginia redistricting before midterms?
10
Ṁ550Ṁ690
Nov 2
78%
chance
5

This market resolves yes if Virginia uses a different congressional map for the 2026 elections then the 2024 elections.

There is a current attempt in Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting, similar to several other states. This is particularly complicated in Virginia, because they currently have a bipartisan redistricting commission and passing a constitutional amendment is more difficult than in California. The steps needed (to my understanding:

  1. Pass resolution in current special session

  1. Pass resolution in a new session after the election (so early next year)

  1. Organize a special election to pass a ballot measure in time for the midterms

  2. Pass said ballot measure

  3. Survive any legal challenges

Market context
US Politics
U.S. Congress
2026 US Election
Virginia
Gerrymandering
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