Resolves N/A for all people who didn't become deputy leader of the Labour party following the 2025 Labour Party deputy leadership election, and for the remaining option at whether the PM after the next election is a member of the Labour Party.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Lucy Powell is most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the Prime Minister on January 1st 2030 be Labour?

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?

Will Labour announce a leadership election before 1st June 2026?

25% chance

Will the winner of Labour's Deputy Leadership contest become Deputy Prime Minister within one year?

32% chance

If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?

40% chance

If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer doesn't leave as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?

41% chance

Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?

If this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

Who will be the next leader of the UK Labour Party?

If Labour loses over 1000 council seats in the 2026 local elections, will Starmer cease to be PM in 2026?

59% chance