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MANIFOLD
How many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
9
Ṁ1kṀ786
2029
80%
>= 35
69%
>= 40
41%
>= 50

By date of launches and landing, not the flight number that does the landing, so inclusive of refueling flights.

  • Update 2026-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Launch counting starts from IFT-1 (integrated flight tests, excluding ship-only hops).

    • The landing on the Moon does not need to be crewed; an uncrewed demo or cargo landing will qualify.

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Presume you count from IFT-1? I.e. ship only hops don't count but suborbital, booster plus ship launches do count.

Sounds from your comment that an uncrewed demo cargo flight would count doesn't needed to be crewed.

Might require ~15 refuelling tankers to fill her up for human landing but cargo mission i.e. ship does not return and only having low payload to test the landing might quire fewer tanker launches. Artemis III is only going to low Earth orbit and at best that is March 2027. Actually going to moon with HLS demo or cargo seems likely to be quite a bit later than that. Heck even just the time to build the tankers needed could push it past March 2027.

@ChristopherRandles yes, the usual counting on Manifold and elsewhere starts from IFT-1, this is intended to line up with all the "flight n by when" markets and such. And that's correct, does not need to be crewed.

bought Ṁ150 NO

The current list has a March 2027 landing demo, which is the 18th flight on the list, but with "an unknown number of successful refueling flights will be required, estimated to be in the high teens". That would beat the 35 answer if it is 16 or fewer refueling flights and no additional flights not yet listed.