How many "safe" Senate seats will the Democrats win in 2026? (CO DE MA NJ OR RI VA)
13
Ṁ400Ṁ5.2kNov 5
7.34 seats
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.6%
0
0.4%
1
0.4%
2
0.7%
3
0.9%
4
0.6%
5
0.9%
6
95%
7
As of question writing, these are the 7 states that are listed as "safe" or "solid" Democratic seats on Wikipedia by all four ratings columns.
How many of them will the Democrats actually win?
Based on a consensus of credible reporting, or certified results if consensus reporting is not available prior to that. Counting independent senators who have announced they intend to caucus with the Democrats.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@adele I don't know. I think Manifold makes odd assumptions about the range, and I'm not sure why or if there's a way to fix that at question creation time.
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