Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party holds 53 or more seats in the specified chamber of the United States Congress on February 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Source of truth: The official composition (identity and partisan membership) published by the United States Congress (accessible via Congress.gov or official chamber directories at Senate.gov) as of February 1, 2027.

• Caucusing members: In accordance with standard Congressional counting conventions, independent members who officially caucus with the Democratic Party (e.g., independent senators who organize with the Democratic caucus) are counted toward the Democratic seat total.

• Timing & revisions: Partisan composition will be measured as of February 1, 2027. Any vacancies, special elections, or party switches occurring or officially recorded after February 1, 2027, will not be factored into resolution.

Background

The U.S. Senate consists of 100 seats, where 50 seats plus the Vice President's tie-breaking vote represents a governing majority, and 53 seats represents an outright three-seat cushion.

Official party standings and caucus compositions for incoming Congresses take shape upon swearing-in in early January following November general elections. Independent lawmakers periodically caucus with the Democratic Party for committee assignments and organizational votes, which is standardly included when determining caucus seat strength in the chamber.

l