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MANIFOLD
By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight?
11
Ṁ180Ṁ455
2041
66%
By end of 2035
63%
Boom Overture will not make a supersonic passenger-carrying flight
63%
By end of 2029
55%
By end of 2036
54%
By end of 2030
51%
By end of 2037
50%
After end of 2040
46%
By end of 2031
45%
By end of 2038
45%
By end of 2039
45%
By end of 2040
41%
By end of 2034
40%
By end of 2032
37%
By end of 2033
7%
By end of 2028
1%
By end of 2026
1%
By end of 2027
1%
By end of 2025

Resolves based on the date of the first reported supersonic passenger-carrying flight of the Boom Overture aircraft.

For a given year of resolution, all markets up to the year before will resolve "NO", then all markets for that year and later will resolve "yes". So for example, if the Overture makes its first passenger-carrying flight on 2030-06-01, then "By end of 2025":"By end of 2029" will resolve "NO", and "By end of 2030":"By end of 2040" will resolve "YES".

If the flight was conducted at the end of one year but the press release made at the start of the next, I will resolve based on the datetime of the flight, not the press release.

"Passenger-carrying" is a little vague, but I'll take this to be carrying non-engineering and non-pilot passengers who do not work for Boom, as on a maiden flight. They do not need to have paid for that ticket to be classified as "passengers". Supersonic test flights with onboard pilots and engineering, while awesome, do not count as passenger-carrying.

I have an option for "Boom Overture will not make a supersonic passenger-carrying flight" to cover the risk of Boom going bust or pivoting away from the Overture.

If another company buys Boom, but development of a supersonic passenger aircraft based on the Overture design outline continues, I will consider that to still be the Overture.

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