After Concorde
Operate a supersonic aircraft on commercial routes where anyone with sufficient money can buy a ticket.
Supersonic aircraft: flies between Mach 1-5 and does not leave Earth's atmosphere
Please add airline names properly
Resolves to first three correct answers.
Will extend until resolution
If it becomes clear that this will never happen, a trusted neutral party should be appointed to judge when an NA resolution is necessary, since I intend to get on this market
Specific SpaceX judgement:
if SpaceX start operating as an airline I'll just edit the answer to XAir or whatever dumb name it is, but it will only count if they are operating a supersonic jet rather than a Starship point2point vehicle
Update 2024-11-12 (PST): - If an airline that is not listed as an option operates a supersonic airliner next, then fewer than three answers will resolve as True (AI summary of creator comment)
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@JoshuaWilkes If an airline not on this list (say, Etihad) is next to operate a supersonic airliner, then I assume fewer than three answers resolve to True.
@Scipio11 Yes, although more likely someone would add the airline in question to the market before then
@Ernie See here for extended discussion about how I'm handling this:
TLDR: probably want to exit much of that position
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/which-will-be-the-next-airline-to-o?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz
@JoshuaWilkes I'm happy to cover any mana loss from this, I should have updated the two markets simultaneously