Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if the COMAC C949 aircraft successfully demonstrates supersonic flight (exceeding Mach 1) in service to a passenger airline, carrying passengers. It resolves to NO if the aircraft is officially abandoned, redesigned as a subsonic aircraft, or fails to achieve supersonic passenger flight by January 1, 2050.
Background
The COMAC C949 is an on paper supersonic passenger aircraft potentially being developed by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). The aircraft is designed to fly at Mach 1.6 (approximately 1,960 km/h or 1,218 mph), which is 1.6 times the speed of sound. This would make it significantly faster than conventional subsonic commercial jets that typically cruise around Mach 0.85.
The C949 aims to address the challenges that plagued previous supersonic passenger aircraft like the Concorde, particularly by reducing the sonic boom noise. The design reportedly includes a 50% longer range than the Concorde, which would enhance its commercial viability for long-haul routes.
Considerations
Supersonic commercial aviation faces significant technical, regulatory, and economic challenges. Previous attempts like the Concorde were commercially unsuccessful in the long term. The C949 will need to overcome issues related to fuel efficiency, environmental concerns, and international regulations regarding supersonic flight over populated areas to be commercially viable.
1,000