README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: 1st event: 1% (happens soonest) 2nd event: 2% (happens next) ... 100th event: 100% (happens latest) Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES. Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025). Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count. Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th). Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, the start of Amazon Prime Day(s), followed by onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube and EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4 are most likely. See the market for live updates (27 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).

🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (13 DONE)

MANIFOLD

🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (13 DONE)

Ṁ2.5kṀ3.3k

2027

15%

Last day of the NFL draft

16%

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

18%

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

22%

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

24%

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

24%

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

25%

grok 5 release date

28%

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

30%

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

31%

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)

31%

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

34%

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

34%

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

34%

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

36%

Taylor swift gets married

36%

Manifest 2026 starts

37%

llama 5 release date

38%

fifa world cup - last game ends

43%

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

46%

Hades 3 announced (game)

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)

Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).

Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count.

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th).

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

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Which of the following events will happen first?

⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (5 DONE)

Which of the following 10 events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?

Which will be the second of these things to happen in 2026?

🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (10/100 DONE)

📆What will happen in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will something happen in 2026?

67% chance

What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related)

Nothing Ever Happens 2026

36% chance

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

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@strutheo
The FDA approved the Wegovy® pill (once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg) for weight management on December 22, 2025.

So does

ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
need to be replaced?

Or are subsequent ones qualifying?
e.g.
Foundayo™ (Eli Lilly - orforglipron): Approved April 1, 2026, as a once-daily oral GLP-1 for weight loss, noted for not requiring specific food or water restrictions before ingestion.

1 April might be before the last two resolved ones?

sold Ṁ12 NO

@strutheo
Recently released Muse Spark, originally code-named Avocado, does this count as Llama 5?
There may well be a Llama 5 later AFAIK.

@strutheo
I think you can resolve
Apple event at 8%
iphone release at 10% (9% already resolved)

@strutheo Wondering if you resolved the wrong one:.

iphone 17e not available until 11 March
but Apple event has occurred 4th March

Even if you are using announcement date rather than availability date for iphone the announcement was during apple event so apple event came first right?

@ChristopherRandles oops.. @mods fix pls

@strutheo unresolve the iPhone one?

@shankypanky I believe so yes

done

@shankypanky still showing as resolved to me. ?

@ChristopherRandles whoops, seems to have done it this time

bought Ṁ7 NO

@strutheo
Apple event 4th March 9:00am ET can resolve.

"trump removes a cabinet member"
Is this date leaves office (end of month) or date announced (5th March) or date of confirmation of successor or...?

Lunar eclipse totality has ended

bought Ṁ10 NO

@strutheo
does this count?
https://news.manifold.markets/p/announcing-mnx-the-ai-exchange
Feb 18th

SpaceX 25th launch was on Feb 27th

sold Ṁ4 NO

@strutheo
5% ? manifold launches real money trading Feb 18th
6% SpaceX 25th launch was on Feb 27th
7% new iphone releases (in the USA)
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/03/apple-introduces-iphone-17e/

sold Ṁ11 NO

hmm new iphone 17e announced 2nd March but availability from 11 March. Which is the release date?

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras has happened

bought Ṁ30 NO

@strutheo oh sorry does this 5 Feb count?
https://www.nintendo.com/en-gb/News/Nintendo-Direct/Latest-Nintendo-Direct/Nintendo-Direct-698557.html

https://www.nintendo.com/us/nintendo-direct/archive/?srsltid=AfmBOopTYPGez6Z0i0p1c_4jcrNpQ8ZdcbaSPP_RZ7wlLai1YN8iiAEU
I assumed Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream Direct 1.29.26

didn't count and I am not sure if there was previous discussion of 'partner showcase's.

@ChristopherRandles feb 5 count
@mods can you make nioh 3%

bought Ṁ40 NO

@strutheo do you mean Nintendo direct 2% which you could do and mods to adjust Nioh 3 to 3%?

@ChristopherRandles yes ty

@strutheo unresolved nioh 3

bought Ṁ40 NO

@strutheo released 6 Feb

@strutheo https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
"On January 27, 2026, the Doomsday Clock was set at 85 seconds to midnight...".
So this should be 1%, unless there's something else.