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MANIFOLD
⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (12 DONE)
33
Ṁ1kṀ4.7k
2027
90%
Coyote vs Acme releases
88%
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
85%
grok 5 releases
83%
100th spacex launch of the year
82%
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
59%
twitter x mail releases
35%
Chat GPT 6 releases
33%
noam chomsky passes away
33%
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
32%
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
28%
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
26%
stripe ipo happens
26%
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
22%
windows 12 announcement is made
21%
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
21%
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
19%
discord IPOs
15%
Twitter gets a new CEO
12%
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
10%
trump is impeached by either house OR senate

The first 20 events in this market that happen will resolve YES, the other 20 will resolve NO. If only a few resolve YES, the remaining answers will all resolve NO at end of year.

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Competition
2024
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bought Ṁ5 NO

@strutheo

@strutheo i think this happened

@strutheo 7.8 in Philippines Jun 8

@strutheo resolves YES thx

@strutheo but it didn't release yet lol

@deagol unresolve mods pls

cc @mods

@deagol @strutheo now released so cancel that unresolve instruction?

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/03/apple-introduces-iphone-17e/
and change to 3 done.

@ChristopherRandles or maybe "released" needs it to be available? i guess doesn't matter much either way

bought Ṁ21 YES

@strutheo would the 17e count? it's a new iPhone even if part of the existing 17 family.

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 95% order

@strutheo USA Government had a shutdown

bought Ṁ173 YES

@strutheo Nioh 3 released today
and US Government shutdown can both resolve

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