🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (9 DONE)

MANIFOLD

Ṁ2.5kṀ2.9k

2027

First Apple Event of the year

10%

new iphone releases (in the USA)

11%

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

14%

artemis II mission launches

14%

Last day of the NFL draft

21%

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

21%

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

26%

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

28%

llama 5 release date

29%

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

30%

grok 5 release date

34%

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

34%

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

36%

Taylor swift gets married

38%

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

38%

fifa world cup - last game ends

41%

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

41%

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

43%

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

44%

Manifest 2026 starts

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)

Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).

Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count.

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th).

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (4 DONE)

☘️What will happen in March 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Which of the following 10 events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?

🆒CoolFold 100 Challenge: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order? (10/100 DONE)

📆What will happen in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will something happen in 2026?

68% chance

What will happen this year 2026? ( Trump and USA related)

Nothing Ever Happens 2026

25% chance

Which of these will I achieve during the 2025-2026 school year (by July 31, 2026)?

Which of these four events will happen first? #1

24 Comments

24 Holders

240 Trades

Sort by:

@strutheo Wondering if you resolved the wrong one:.

iphone 17e not available until 11 March
but Apple event has occurred 4th March

Even if you are using announcement date rather than availability date for iphone the announcement was during apple event so apple event came first right?

@ChristopherRandles oops.. @mods fix pls

@strutheo unresolve the iPhone one?

@shankypanky I believe so yes

done

@shankypanky still showing as resolved to me. ?

@ChristopherRandles whoops, seems to have done it this time

bought Ṁ7 NO

@strutheo
Apple event 4th March 9:00am ET can resolve.

"trump removes a cabinet member"
Is this date leaves office (end of month) or date announced (5th March) or date of confirmation of successor or...?

Lunar eclipse totality has ended

bought Ṁ10 NO

@strutheo
does this count?
https://news.manifold.markets/p/announcing-mnx-the-ai-exchange
Feb 18th

SpaceX 25th launch was on Feb 27th

sold Ṁ4 NO

@strutheo
5% ? manifold launches real money trading Feb 18th
6% SpaceX 25th launch was on Feb 27th
7% new iphone releases (in the USA)
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/03/apple-introduces-iphone-17e/

sold Ṁ11 NO

hmm new iphone 17e announced 2nd March but availability from 11 March. Which is the release date?

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras has happened

bought Ṁ30 NO

@strutheo oh sorry does this 5 Feb count?
https://www.nintendo.com/en-gb/News/Nintendo-Direct/Latest-Nintendo-Direct/Nintendo-Direct-698557.html

https://www.nintendo.com/us/nintendo-direct/archive/?srsltid=AfmBOopTYPGez6Z0i0p1c_4jcrNpQ8ZdcbaSPP_RZ7wlLai1YN8iiAEU
I assumed Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream Direct 1.29.26

didn't count and I am not sure if there was previous discussion of 'partner showcase's.

@ChristopherRandles feb 5 count
@mods can you make nioh 3%

bought Ṁ40 NO

@strutheo do you mean Nintendo direct 2% which you could do and mods to adjust Nioh 3 to 3%?

@ChristopherRandles yes ty

@strutheo unresolved nioh 3

bought Ṁ40 NO

@strutheo released 6 Feb

@strutheo https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
"On January 27, 2026, the Doomsday Clock was set at 85 seconds to midnight...".
So this should be 1%, unless there's something else.