README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: 1st event: 1% (happens soonest) 2nd event: 2% (happens next) ... 100th event: 100% (happens latest) Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES. Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025). Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count. Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th). Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26, followed by anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse and Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world are most likely. See the market for live updates (43 traders, as of Oct 12, 2026).

🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (42 DONE)

MANIFOLD

🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (42 DONE)

Ṁ2.6kṀ6k

Jan 5

44%

First game of the MLB World Series starts

45%

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

46%

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

48%

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

50%

new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)

50%

Cy Young award winner announced

51%

Third dune movie releases

51%

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

52%

anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse

54%

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

54%

apple announces a touchscreen laptop

56%

grok 5 release date

57%

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

57%

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

59%

manifold raises more money

59%

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

61%

coup in an african country

62%

Hades 3 announced (game)

65%

apple announces a smart ring

66%

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)

Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).

Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count.

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th).

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

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Which of these four events will happen first? #1

Sort by:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.update.10080328.shtml

1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
1st hurricane

@ChristopherRandles
can @mods resolve first atlantic hurricane to 40
nobel peace prize winner announced to 41

Lief Erickson resolve to 42

Unresolve

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the

@strutheo can @mods resolve

first atlantic hurricane to 40
nobel peace prize winner announced to 41
Lief Erickson resolve to 42

Unresolve
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the

@strutheo The deed is done.

@Quroe The earthquake 8.0 still needs to be unresolved?

@ChristopherRandles Oop! Yup, good catch!

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world has resolved? I don't see it?

https://www.iris.edu/app/seismic-monitor/table

lists 7.7 for 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama

@ChristopherRandles https://www.cp24.com/news/world/2026/10/09/a-magnitude-76-earthquake-shakes-panama-us-agency-reports/

@strutheo omg they just changed it to 7.6

@strutheo some still say 8.0 https://kfgo.com/2026/10/09/strong-8-0-magnitude-earthquake-felt-in-panama-usgs/

https://www.ksl.com/article/51634588/strong-80-magnitude-earthquakefelt-in-panama-usgs-and-witnesses-say

https://www.firstpost.com/world/magnitude-8-0-earthquake-strikes-off-panamas-southern-coast-tremors-felt-in-capital-14051812.html

@strutheo https://www.iris.edu/app/seismic-monitor/table and List of earthquakes in 2026 - Wikipedia
are still saying 7.7
shouldn't you be asking mods to change Nobel to 41% and unresolve Earthquake and Leif Eriksson day until it is clearer?

@ChristopherRandles updates message to mods

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 39% order

Hijacking since you have resolved elsewhere

opened a Ṁ10 NO at 38% order

@strutheo iphone fold release date known: 23 October announced on Sept 9th do we wait for that date to see if that is true?

bought Ṁ1 NO

@strutheo
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
4 Sept

@strutheo Following have happened:
Patriot games ending 11th Aug
Solar eclipse 12th Aug
100 SpaceX rocket 97 Falcon 9, 1 Falcon Heavy, 2 Starship 19th Aug
List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches - Wikipedia
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=rocket_174&tab=past

looked fairly thoroughly through others

Perhaps Third dune movie officially announced looking more like it will need to be replaced?

Launches | Next Spaceflight

Catch the next launches in spaceflight or view all previous launches

bought Ṁ2 NO

@strutheo

Congrats on 100,000 traders
before patriot games start I think

@strutheo FIFA world cup ends 19th July
First Pacific hurricane 20th July
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep06/ep062026.discus.009.shtml
Fausto the first hurricane of the 2026 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Those 2 can resolve thanks

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 32% order

25 July 2026 2nd Pacific hurricane
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ep07/ep072026.discus.007.shtml
800 PM MST Sat Jul 25 2026
The Dvorak estimate from TAFB is up to T4.0/65 kt, while the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and DPRINT estimates are between 65 and 77 kt. Based on these data, Genevieve is upgraded to a 70-kt hurricane.