MANIFOLD
๐Ÿ—“๏ธ2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (3 DONE)
21
แน€2.5kแน€2.5k
2027
7%
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
9%
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
9%
artemis II mission launches
9%
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
10%
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
23%
First Apple Event of the year
24%
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
24%
Last day of the NFL draft
26%
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
28%
llama 5 release date
30%
grok 5 release date
34%
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
34%
trump removes a cabinet member
34%
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
35%
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
35%
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
36%
Taylor swift gets married
38%
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
41%
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
41%
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

  • 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)

  • 2nd event: 2% (happens next)

    ...

  • 100th event: 100% (happens latest)


Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.

  • Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "the first Solar eclipse of the year": annular eclipses do not count.

  • Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The Nintendo Direct on February 5th counts as the first Nintendo Direct of the year (not the Tomodachi Life Direct from January 29th).

  • Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "First Nintendo direct of the year": The February 5th Nintendo Direct counts as a valid Nintendo Direct for this answer.

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bought แน€30 NO

@strutheo oh sorry does this 5 Feb count?
https://www.nintendo.com/en-gb/News/Nintendo-Direct/Latest-Nintendo-Direct/Nintendo-Direct-698557.html

https://www.nintendo.com/us/nintendo-direct/archive/?srsltid=AfmBOopTYPGez6Z0i0p1c_4jcrNpQ8ZdcbaSPP_RZ7wlLai1YN8iiAEU
I assumed Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream Direct 1.29.26

didn't count and I am not sure if there was previous discussion of 'partner showcase's.

@ChristopherRandles feb 5 count
@mods can you make nioh 3%

bought แน€40 NO

@strutheo do you mean Nintendo direct 2% which you could do and mods to adjust Nioh 3 to 3%?

@strutheo unresolved nioh 3

bought แน€40 NO

@strutheo released 6 Feb

@strutheo https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
"On January 27, 2026, the Doomsday Clock was set at 85 seconds to midnight...".
So this should be 1%, unless there's something else.

bought แน€3 NO

Close date needs extending?

@strutheo Does annular count? (Seems like not many people will notice it Antarctica and just barely south eastern South Africa)

@strutheo Already at 7,116,489 not going to reach 8M maybe 7.2 million?

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