Resolves YES if Charlie Kirk was dead at the time this market was created (12:08:17 PM Pacific Time, September 10, 2025), and NO otherwise.
1,000People are also trading
It looks like this market is now closed, I'm not going to reopen it. The original creator blocked the last moderator that tried to intervene, so Evan (Mod) can't comment anymore.
We'll see how the real world plays out over the coming days and then come up with a resolution when appropriate.
Edit: Now the original creator has reopened the market. I wonder if we will need to extend his temporary 1 week ban to be a longer ban, it's not a good idea to lash out in this way.
Traders: I can't guarantee what will happen with the market, trade at your own risk. I would have kept it closed for trading after the time ran out.
The mod team believes this was created as an independent multiple choice market with 2 outcomes specifically for the purpose of farming trader bonuses; this violates community guidelines specifically on the topic, and more generally is not being excellent to each other. It's not creating markets in ways designed to benefit the site and its users; it's enshittification in service of trader bonuses.
The creator has been banned for a week. The mod team guarantees that the two outcomes on this market will resolve in opposite directions.
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I've been searching "Charlie Kirk Autopsy report" every day since this market was made - there have been no updates at all, and the news cycle has moved on. If we're not going to resolve based on the evidence we have on hand (with multiple sources confirming he made it to the hospital in critical condition (which was past 12:08PM) posted earlier in the comments, I'd prefer that we at least resolve this N/A so I can go reallocate this mana elsewhere. @mods
@Luxeed I found this random article that says we'll never see the official report. https://crossroadsreport.substack.com/p/state-of-utah-charlie-kirk-autopsy
Just gonna butt in here and wield the power no one thought to take away from me when I left a year ago to N/A this now as requested
oh thank god. this market's been a mess for way too long
@Marnix When one mod tells us resolution criteria and another mod resolves it against those criteria 16 days later, how do they decide? I'm glad they closed trading first.
https://manifold.markets/evan/is-charlie-kirk-dead#5j8qdsfh9za
@Chumchulum tell the admins to strip me of my mod power or get the other mods to shame me. if you really wanna contest, make a stink in discord and I'm sure a mod panel will convene to make a big official decision in 60 business days, but you'll be stuck waiting and might get an N/A out of it in the end anyway. I'm a bull in a china shop
@Chumchulum Ben's comment was not as a moderator, he was one of the biggest traders in the market. But they don't let us take off the "mod hat".
@Stralor if we did the mod dispute thing it's probably 90% to N/A because he was already dead but someone will argue that no official report was made and etc.
@Stralor but there is still a reasonable chance that within the next X period of time, evidence comes out that he was absolutely totally either alive or dead at the time specified.
@Eliza 🤷 you're probably right but I don't see a reason to litigate it on a market that was designed to cause shenanigans
@Eliza I won't drag this out, but there was no indication that Ben's comment was as a trader as opposed to as a moderator. My only request related to this is that if more evidence comes out during the period of time, you are willing to resolve it again XD
@Magnify The original market creator is currently banned. Their ban was supposed to only be for one week, but then they took some very disruptive actions that caused problems for the entire site. I would have defaulted to just assuming the market would resolve on the intent of the original creator, but he's not able to do it anymore.
There's a chance he shows up in the comment section anyway, but it's not clear what weight we would give to his opinion on how to resolve it.
For now, waiting seems appropriate. If more information comes out, then one or another interpretation might be more clear. There's a chance that more information comes out and it is still unclear how to resolve it.
Here's what I found so far, firsthand testimony from someone who claims to have been there:
As they frantically raced to the hospital, Turek tearfully said he realized Kirk was gone.
"Charlie wasn’t there. His eyes were fixed," he said. "He wasn't looking at me. He was looking past me right into eternity. He was with Jesus already. He was killed instantly and felt absolutely no pain."
Turek said despite their best efforts, there was nothing they could do to save Kirk.
"If that's any comfort at all, Charlie didn't suffer," he said. "He was gone. He was with Jesus. Absent from the body, present with the Lord. That's where he was."
So according to Frank Turek, Charlie was "killed instantly".
Shortly after, the article says this:
Doctors briefly restored Kirk's pulse at the hospital, but a surgeon pronounced him dead within half an hour, according to Turek.
Make of it what you will, I haven't traded.
I got the quotes here, but there is an attached video with this man's explanation. The quoted part of interest for this market is at about 2:45 or so.
My understanding is this testimony directly contradicts several sources listed in comments lower down on this thread that indicated he lived for an hour or more, perhaps someone will be brave enough to share which version of events they think is more likely.
@Eliza yep, this always seemed the most likely sequence of events to me. I think it’ll just come down to the precise time of that “within half an hour of arriving at the hospital”.
If no official time of death is released, I think it’s reasonable to resolve based on some estimate of time for ambulance to arrive, time to hospital, and this “under half an hour”.
@bens this was reasonable! I didn't read it and just plowed on thru to free the traders from limbo. Sorry guys!