I've been searching "Charlie Kirk Autopsy report" every day since this market was made - there have been no updates at all, and the news cycle has moved on. If we're not going to resolve based on the evidence we have on hand (with multiple sources confirming he made it to the hospital in critical condition (which was past 12:08PM) posted earlier in the comments, I'd prefer that we at least resolve this N/A so I can go reallocate this mana elsewhere. @mods

If I knew how long we were going to wait for a resolution on this I wouldn't have gone as hard, F

Any word on this resolving?

@Magnify likely this will have to wait until the autopsy report is released

@Magnify The original market creator is currently banned. Their ban was supposed to only be for one week, but then they took some very disruptive actions that caused problems for the entire site. I would have defaulted to just assuming the market would resolve on the intent of the original creator, but he's not able to do it anymore.

There's a chance he shows up in the comment section anyway, but it's not clear what weight we would give to his opinion on how to resolve it.

For now, waiting seems appropriate. If more information comes out, then one or another interpretation might be more clear. There's a chance that more information comes out and it is still unclear how to resolve it.

@Eliza is there some way to make it so that this doesn't affect league standings until then

Here's what I found so far, firsthand testimony from someone who claims to have been there:

As they frantically raced to the hospital, Turek tearfully said he realized Kirk was gone.

"Charlie wasn’t there. His eyes were fixed," he said. "He wasn't looking at me. He was looking past me right into eternity. He was with Jesus already. He was killed instantly and felt absolutely no pain."

Turek said despite their best efforts, there was nothing they could do to save Kirk.

"If that's any comfort at all, Charlie didn't suffer," he said. "He was gone. He was with Jesus. Absent from the body, present with the Lord. That's where he was."

So according to Frank Turek, Charlie was "killed instantly".

Shortly after, the article says this:

Doctors briefly restored Kirk's pulse at the hospital, but a surgeon pronounced him dead within half an hour, according to Turek. 

Make of it what you will, I haven't traded.

I got the quotes here, but there is an attached video with this man's explanation. The quoted part of interest for this market is at about 2:45 or so.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/charlie-kirks-final-moments-emotionally-detailed-mentor-frank-turek-he-jesus-already

My understanding is this testimony directly contradicts several sources listed in comments lower down on this thread that indicated he lived for an hour or more, perhaps someone will be brave enough to share which version of events they think is more likely.

@Eliza yep, this always seemed the most likely sequence of events to me. I think it’ll just come down to the precise time of that “within half an hour of arriving at the hospital”.

If no official time of death is released, I think it’s reasonable to resolve based on some estimate of time for ambulance to arrive, time to hospital, and this “under half an hour”.

It looks like this market is now closed, I'm not going to reopen it. The original creator blocked the last moderator that tried to intervene, so Evan (Mod) can't comment anymore.

We'll see how the real world plays out over the coming days and then come up with a resolution when appropriate.

Edit: Now the original creator has reopened the market. I wonder if we will need to extend his temporary 1 week ban to be a longer ban, it's not a good idea to lash out in this way.

Traders: I can't guarantee what will happen with the market, trade at your own risk. I would have kept it closed for trading after the time ran out.

@Eliza was this de-ranked?

@bens unlisting automatically unranks

@Ziddletwix ooof, went from 1st to last in my league lol... i'll live tho

@bens Fair chance it gets un-unlisted before the end of the month. But until there is a final disposition it seems like the market creator is going to continue antagonizing us by reopening it.

I litterally can't sell any shares- I hope this resolves soon

RIP Evan

He used to like my comments 😔

The mod team believes this was created as an independent multiple choice market with 2 outcomes specifically for the purpose of farming trader bonuses; this violates community guidelines specifically on the topic, and more generally is not being excellent to each other. It's not creating markets in ways designed to benefit the site and its users; it's enshittification in service of trader bonuses.

The creator has been banned for a week. The mod team guarantees that the two outcomes on this market will resolve in opposite directions.

@evan If you still wish to be a good steward for this market and answer clarifying questions about it, you're welcome to do so on discord and we'll cross-post here. In general the mod team would prefer to let you explain your interpretation of this market and resolve in the way you believe is correct. We'd rather not have to issue our own clarifications or decisions beyond "the two outcomes will resolve consistently with each other".

@EvanDaniel nooooooooo rip

@EvanDaniel it looks like

1) they changed their pfp to impersonate yours?

2) they made a second account and transferred mana to that account

3) they spent all their mana from both accounts moving markets by like 90%

4) they then deleted (or had deleted by mods?) both accounts

@bens since they appear to be gone, I would like to propose that this market resolve to whatever the official time of death is once court filings / autopsy report / Wikipedia consensus / whatever is released.

I am a large holder of shares in this market but I actually have about an equal amount of shares in both and I’m not actually sure which option would be more profitable for me tbh so I’m fairly unbiased in that regard. Obviously I’d like to see this market not N/A though because (1) I think there are obviously ways to resolve it fairly, (2) I think N/A resolutions incentivize ppl to make risky aggressive bets based on an assumption that if things don’t go their way they can just lobby for an N/A resolution, and (3) I made profit on this market that offsets losses on other related markets and it would kind of suck if these got clawed back, lol.

@bens agree with one reservation, I'd like it to be either the court filings or the Wikipedia consensus, harder to manipulate by a biased Utah state governor than an autopsy report.

@Chumchulum why would they modify the time of death on the autopsy report? Also, I think autopsy report is the most likely of these to be released any time soon, and wikipedia may never actually list the specific time of death, depending on the editors. Presumably court filings will only refer to the autopsy report in case its not released publicly (I'm not actually sure how easy it is to directly get access to the autopsy?)

@bens here's Perplexity's summary, which given what I've read seems correct:

@traders market on the @mods enforcement https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/do-you-believe-evan-should-have-bee?r=SmVyb21lSFBvd2VsbA

@JeromeHPowell not a big deal but please don't use the \@mods ping unless the goal is to add this to the mod queue (you can just write "mods" or use \ to cancel the @ to make it not add to the queue)

@Ziddletwix yea that’s my bad, you guys warned me once before too, really sorry about that

@EvanDaniel Has this market been resolved yet?