Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A. Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Acted alone (no accomplices): any accomplice associated with the shooting counts, including after-the-fact assistance (e.g., destroying evidence). If any such accomplice exists, this answer will not resolve as true. Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A conviction or guilty plea in court would be sufficient evidence to resolve answers about the shooter's identity Direct evidence would be sufficient Circumstantial evidence or evidence described as "seemingly" implicating someone would not be sufficient to resolve Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve in the case of a guilty plea (in addition to a conviction in court)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders, followed by Male and Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law are most likely. See the market for live updates (597 traders, as of Jun 5, 2026).

What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

MANIFOLD

What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter

597

Ṁ4.7kṀ140k

Dec 10

99.5%

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

99.4%

Male

99.1%

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

99%

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

99%

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

99%

has at least one sibling

99%

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

99%

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

98.9%

US citizen

98.9%

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

98.9%

Born in the United States

98.8%

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

98.8%

Native English speaker (L1)

98.8%

Is a registered voter

98.6%

20-27 years old

98.5%

used a bolt action rifle

98.5%

Is named Tyler Robinson

98.4%

White

98.3%

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

98%

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A.

Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Acted alone (no accomplices): any accomplice associated with the shooting counts, including after-the-fact assistance (e.g., destroying evidence). If any such accomplice exists, this answer will not resolve as true.

Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A conviction or guilty plea in court would be sufficient evidence to resolve answers about the shooter's identity
- Direct evidence would be sufficient
- Circumstantial evidence or evidence described as "seemingly" implicating someone would not be sufficient to resolve

Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve in the case of a guilty plea (in addition to a conviction in court)

Market context

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People are also trading

Which method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?

What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?

Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking influencer within a year of Charlie Kirk's?

25% chance

Will Charlie Kirk's killer receive the death penalty?

33% chance

US civil war before 2028 with Charlie Kirk shooting as major cause?

3% chance

Will it be confirmed that the Charlie Kirk shooter played Helldivers 2 by the end of 2026?

68% chance

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bought Ṁ30 NO

@NivlacM @vdb confident this resolves NO. We would definitely have heard about it by now if this were true

bought Ṁ26 NO

@zsig @vdb resolves NO

bought Ṁ30 YES

@deletedaccount001

https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-jd-vance-turning-point-usa-phoenix-december-21-2025/

those damn small apartments

@vdb resolves YES

bought Ṁ58 YES

@deletedaccount001

this resolves YES

@vdb resolves YES

@vdb can you resolve? Got things to do with my mana

Could we resolve this ?

@EspenJohannesen any specific items in mind?

@vdb def a furry

@vdb @brod resolves yes and so on

@vdb @brod resolves yes

@121 Resolves N/A

bought Ṁ223 YES

@vdb Resolves n/a

@vdb Please resolve

"The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria": NO

"The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien": YES

"Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14": NO

"used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory": NO.

If you do, I will give you 12 mana as appreciation. If you are thinking that there is a risk it might be misresolved, there is always the unresolve button that the mods can use, so resolving it early for obvious options is fine.