What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter
577
4.6kṀ130k
Dec 10
99.7%
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
99.7%
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
99.5%
20-27 years old
99.4%
used a bolt action rifle
99.1%
White
99%
US citizen
99%
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
99%
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
99%
Skinny
99%
has at least one sibling
99%
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
99%
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
99%
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
99%
Is named Tyler Robinson
99%
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
99%
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
99%
Male
99%
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
99%
Born in the United States
98.8%
Native English speaker (L1)

  • Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If it's ambiguous whether the shooter is male, this market will resolve to N/A.

  • Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Acted alone (no accomplices): any accomplice associated with the shooting counts, including after-the-fact assistance (e.g., destroying evidence). If any such accomplice exists, this answer will not resolve as true.

  • Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A conviction or guilty plea in court would be sufficient evidence to resolve answers about the shooter's identity

    • Direct evidence would be sufficient

    • Circumstantial evidence or evidence described as "seemingly" implicating someone would not be sufficient to resolve

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@vdb please resolve the obviously true answers

@121 You don't think there is a chance that the shooter isn't Tyler Robinson? I don't know with what credence I would bet Tyler Robinson is the shooter, but it's not 100%.

@vdb how will this ever resolve then? There will always be a chance that it's someone else.

@vdb I mean, one can probably never be “100%” sure of anything, but we’re probably like >99.9% confident it’s him, no?

@bens @jonmast I agree that there is always a chance, and would not wait till my credence reaches 100% to resolve.

In this case some legal decision/legal announcement will probably still increase my credence, and that (or something with similiar effect) is what I'm waiting for.

(Thinking of 12 Angry Men)

@vdb I might change my mind, though, if I'm overwhelmed by complaints from manifold users 😂

@121 I don't think there is a chance that the shooter is a member of domain Bacteria. I don't think there is a chance that the shooter is not a member of domain Eukarya. I don't think there is a chance that the shooter is an extraterrestrial alien.

@vdb ah you want to wait for the trial to finish with a conviction?

Or would a guilty plea at the trial be enough to resolve?

Currently, there seems to be a confession (both to family and to a groupchat), video evidence seemingly implicating him, tons of circumstantial evidence (the bullet shell text matches his Steam game logs, etc), and no active denials on the part of him or his family as far as I can tell.

@bens A conviction or guilty plea in court would suffice. Other direct evidences would, too. "Seemingly" or "circumstantial" evidences would not.

@121 There’s definitely a chance that the shooter was an extraterrestrial alien. Not a very high chance, mind you, but it’s not zero.

@TheAllMemeingEye Is this intended to necessarily stay open for the rest of the shooter's life? Or should this resolve on the market closing date?

@Quroe it's about the rest of his life, but if necessary I'm ok with it being preliminarily resolved early with potential later re-resolution

BBC mentions the furaffinity account!

Hats off to the daily mail's investigative journalists for digging through all that furry porn. Taking one for the team

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 90% order

@121 easiest way to scam pug bot gg

I hate clankers, this pug bot scammer got 50000 every month

The person who posts below me is going to get at least 10 likes because that happens every time I post a controversial opinion

Are we not banning the hard R (after the C word) on this site?

only 7 more likes until the prophecy is fulfilled

the right-wing press are going with it

@Vesperstelo were there not, like, 3 different dudes, or was that just the last one of them and the two first ones were described different?

brother, if you think the furry community is one of the more "controversial" communities on the internet, you ain't seen shit

sold Ṁ3 YES

story is getting traction on some big right-wing accounts

they saying he's into vore as well? 🤣

Elon Musk is gonna retweet this for sure 😂

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