Based on the verified leaderboard at https://arcprize.org/leaderboard. Same concept but opposite dimension as https://manifold.markets/EchoNolan/when-will-the-first-model-reach-50
I will likely extend the close date until this is achieved.
Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering that scaffolds and non-LLMs may not count for resolution. The current inclination is that only relatively "plain" LLM models would qualify, meaning:
Third-party scaffolds around existing models may not count
Non-traditional LLMs may not count
No final decision has been made yet; the creator is open to suggestions from traders.
1,000Hmm, I realize that it is unclear from the resolution criteria (and frankly unclear to my own intuitive understanding of the question) how this should resolve if the first verified solution over 50% is:
Not a traditional LLM at all?
A third-party scaffold around an existing model?
I can see arguments for these results not counting and only a “pure” model counting. I can see arguments that third-party scaffolds should be allowed and resolve to “Other”, or equally to the lab of the underlying model.
I dunno.
I think I am currently inclined to say scaffolds and non-LLMs don’t count, and the spirit of the market is the first relatively “plain” LLM model but I realize that’s probably contentious given I argued against this exact interpretation in a previous similar market 😛
@traders no decision yet, I’m open to suggestions.