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MANIFOLD
Best ARC-AGI-3 score in 2026?
50
Ṁ1kṀ22k
resolved Sep 3
100%98.1%
>90%
0.1%
0 - 10%
0.1%
10 - 20%
0.1%
20 - 30%
0.1%
30 - 40%
0.1%
40 - 50%
0.1%
50 - 60%
1.1%
60 - 70%
0.2%
70 - 80%
0.2%
80 - 90%

Resolves to best AI score in 2026, according to https://arcprize.org/leaderboard

Buckets left inclusive.

AI
OpenAI
AI Impacts
Competitive Gaming
Competition Math
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obv

bought Ṁ100 NO

ARC Prize (@arcprize) on X

ARC Prize (@arcprize) on X
GPT-6 Astra by @OpenAI achieves SOTA on ARC-AGI: - Astra scores 63% on ARC-AGI-3, 99% via a new provider adapter harness - It surpasses human performance on 96% of ARC-AGI-3 levels - It builds the most precise symbolic model of novel environments we've seen Our analysis:

@Bayesian the leaderboard table puts GPT-6 Astra at only 67%, because they used a custom harness for the 99.9% headline result.

Does that count for this market?

@Sketchy i'll count it bc it shows up on the official leaderboard

@Bayesian lol it wouldn't be ARC-AGI-3 without one last(?) rule change. A fitting send-off to this benchmark

bought Ṁ5 YES

What will Spud score?

expected this market to exist, could not find it, pls @ me if it does

People are also trading

[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
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Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
99% chance
ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle competition: what will the #1 public leaderboard score be at the final deadline (Nov 2, 2026)?
Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
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What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
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Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
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Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
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In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?
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Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?
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