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MANIFOLD
[ACX 2026] What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
30
Ṁ5.2kṀ48k
Jan 7
94.8 %
expected
0.1%
50 - 59%
0.1%
60 - 69%
0.3%
70 - 79%
0.6%
80 - 89%
98.9%
90 - 100%

Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.

Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as the highest score achieved on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark and published on the official leaderboard before January 1, 2027.

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bought Ṁ800 YES

I know it says resolves to metaculus, but should resolve YES right now. GPT-5.6-Sol (Max) scored 92.5%

bought Ṁ750 YES

@DaftPunkRock 90%-100%% Resolves YES

@JaySocrates conditions have not yet been met

@DaftPunkRock Metaculus acknowledged the GPT-5.6 Sol result on their page already. If you want to wait until the years end for the formal call then that's fine, but it will be above 90%

@DaftPunkRock what’s the condition

@Jack1 read the question description and this thread

@DaftPunkRock metaculus is only predicting where it will be in the range 90-100%. It can be resolved early because of this, as it will definitely resolve in that range. So when you say ‘conditions have not been met’ it doesn’t make any sense

@Jack1 this resolves based on the Metaculus resolution, and that has not yet happened. We have had things overturned before when resolving early.

@DaftPunkRock makes sense

You should bet it down from 99% then

@Jack1 😂

bought Ṁ20 YES

We already have a score of 72.9