Who will be first to AGI

Ṁ1.3kṀ2.8k

2050

28%

OpenAI

Microsoft

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Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027?

10% chance

A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

6% chance

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

2030

What year will mark the first true AGI?

2029

By when will we have AGI?

When will AGI arrive

Will we get AGI before 2027?

3% chance

Will we get AGI before 2028?

23% chance

When will AGI be developed and released to the public?

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Missing DeepSeek

Huffing the copium

Does it resolve to AGI is impossible if AGI is possible but not achieved by 2050?

@ProjectVictory Yes

There are a few answers >10% that are missing

What happens if multiple work together?

Would "other" be worthy of being an option?

@Quroe the question is which of these companies will be first out of these companies listed

@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?

@BrianBors Should resolve to "AGI is impossible"

@jim Thanks for the quick answer!

@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!

@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.

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Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027?

10% chance

A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

6% chance

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

2030

What year will mark the first true AGI?

2029

By when will we have AGI?

When will AGI arrive

Will we get AGI before 2027?

3% chance

Will we get AGI before 2028?

23% chance

When will AGI be developed and released to the public?

People are also trading

People are also trading

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