Who will be first to AGI

Ṁ1.3kṀ2.8k

2050

27%

OpenAI

Microsoft

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Will we get AGI before 2031?

49% chance

Will we get AGI before 2032?

49% chance

Will we get AGI before 2030?

39% chance

Will we get AGI before 2034?

62% chance

Will we get AGI before 2035?

64% chance

Will we get AGI before 2028?

15% chance

Will we get AGI before 2029?

27% chance

Will we get AGI before 2033?

56% chance

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

2031

What year will mark the first true AGI?

2029

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Missing DeepSeek

Huffing the copium

Does it resolve to AGI is impossible if AGI is possible but not achieved by 2050?

@ProjectVictory Yes

There are a few answers >10% that are missing

What happens if multiple work together?

Would "other" be worthy of being an option?

@Quroe the question is which of these companies will be first out of these companies listed

@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?

@BrianBors Should resolve to "AGI is impossible"

@jim Thanks for the quick answer!

@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!

@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.

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Will we get AGI before 2031?

+3% 1d49% chance

Will we get AGI before 2032?

49% chance

Will we get AGI before 2030?

39% chance

Will we get AGI before 2034?

62% chance

Will we get AGI before 2035?

64% chance

Will we get AGI before 2028?

15% chance

Will we get AGI before 2029?

27% chance

Will we get AGI before 2033?

56% chance

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

2031

What year will mark the first true AGI?

2029

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