
Who will be first to AGI
54
Ṁ1.3kṀ2.8k2050
27%
OpenAI
4%
Microsoft
4%
Meta
3%
Huggingface/homegrown
31%
Google
4%
US government
13%
China government
1.2%
Russia government
1.2%
Apple
11%
AGI is impossible
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Which company will create AGI first?
What year will mark the first true AGI?
2029
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2031
By when will we have AGI?
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
When will AGI arrive
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will we get AGI before 2027?
3% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
8% chance
Which entity will be the first to officially announce the creation of AGI?
Sort by:
@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?
@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!
@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.
People are also trading
Related questions
Which company will create AGI first?
What year will mark the first true AGI?
2029
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2031
By when will we have AGI?
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
When will AGI arrive
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Will we get AGI before 2027?
3% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
8% chance
Which entity will be the first to officially announce the creation of AGI?

