
Who will be first to AGI
51
1.3kṀ25912050
24%
OpenAI
5%
Microsoft
5%
Meta
3%
Huggingface/homegrown
28%
Google
5%
US government
15%
China government
1.3%
Russia government
1.3%
Apple
13%
AGI is impossible
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will we get AGI before 2028?
17% chance
Who will lead the AGI race end of 2025?
Will we get AGI before 2035?
60% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
1% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
6% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
47% chance
Will we get AGI before 2034?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
43% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
51% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
1% chance
Sort by:
@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?
@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!
@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2028?
17% chance
Who will lead the AGI race end of 2025?
Will we get AGI before 2035?
60% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
1% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
6% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
47% chance
Will we get AGI before 2034?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
43% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
51% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
1% chance

