Resolution Criteria

Maduro has been captured by US forces and is being sent to the US to face criminal charges. This market resolves YES if Maduro receives a pardon, clemency, immunity deal, or any other form of legal protection that prevents prosecution on the charges he currently faces. This includes any agreement that results in dropped charges, case dismissal, or immunity from prosecution in exchange for cooperation, exile, or other concessions.

The market resolves NO if Maduro is prosecuted and convicted, or if he dies, escapes custody, or the charges are otherwise pursued without a deal granting him legal protection.

Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Justice, presidential proclamations, court filings, or credible reporting from major news outlets confirming the terms of any deal.

Background

Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted with charges of "Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States." Federal prosecutors alleged that Maduro and other senior Venezuelan government officials collaborated with the Colombian guerrilla group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC, to traffic cocaine and weapons to the United States.

Prior to his capture, negotiations between Maduro and the Trump administration collapsed due to Maduro's insistence on blanket immunity for nearly 100 associates—a condition Washington deemed unacceptable. Maduro's demands included retaining $200 million—potentially from funds already frozen by U.S. authorities—along with assurances that he, his wife and son would avoid prosecution.

I will not bet in this market so as to remain as objective as possible. If there is gray area, I reserve the right to resolve to a PROB or to resolve to my best judgment.

The market will be extended if it remains unclear at market close.