Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?
resolved Jan 1


It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that March 2022 was the last time change, that would also be a YES.


1. What if only some states do this?

This is a prediction about what happens at the federal level. Individual states can opt out without affecting how this market resolves.

2. What if a law is passed but then it's reversed?

If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.

(Ask more questions in the comments! Or holler if anything above seems wrong.)

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Given you are now off DST, if the bill is amended to make it permanent from March 2024 and signed into law by 31 Dec is that yes or no?

predicted YES

@ChristopherRandles That would've been YES per FAQ 2.

PS: Oh, I see why this needed clarification, since it was originally about making it permanent starting in 2023. Anyway, moot now, since no law was passed at all!

Sounds like the bill is still kinda stalled, but has supporters. I'm guessing this isn't going to happen (but not confidently enough to be No at 0.5%).


bought Ṁ15 YES from 0.5% to 0.8%
predicted NO

@dreev please resolve :)

predicted NO


If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.

predicted NO

@Radicalia ah, got it, I got confused by the close date

predicted YES


predicted NO

The prior on the US government getting anything done is really low. Base rates

predicted NO

@dreev How does this resolve if some states keep DST? The bill recently reintroduced in the Senate includes an exemption for Alaska and Hawaii. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-reintroduce-bill-make-daylight-saving-time-permanent-2023-03-02/

predicted NO

@mvdm oh wait disregard this, Alaska and Hawaii don’t have DST, the exemption would just keep them on standard time rather than switching to +1 time.

predicted NO

Why is the close date 12/1?

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Updated! I think I must've assumed this would've been decided one way or another by now. Clearly it hasn't been!

This article makes it sound like the bill has lost needed momentum: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3571007-permanent-daylight-saving-time-hits-brick-wall-in-house/

bought Ṁ10 of NO
Related question on California specifically (which still resolves “Yes” if it happens at the national level): https://manifold.markets/Kronopath/will-california-abolish-daylight-sa
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Is love to see this pass, but... Doesn't this require updating most operating systems in the world? Including your little router at home for which the admin password has long been lost? I'd expect more than a few months notice for such an important decision.
predicted YES
@Sjlver Not really, no. There's basically a master list of all the complicated time zone shenanigans, of which DST is a subset, to which all (competently written) programs refer. Phasing DST out would just prompt a change to the list, and in theory most of the world's code needn't change.
predicted NO
@AndrewHartman agree, but isn't that list part of the OS? Or C runtime if you prefer... Anyway close enough to the OS that it's hard to upgrade. And you would still need to upgrade that on every device where you need local times. Think surveillance cameras, ATMs, door lock systems integrated into buildings, weather stations, ... It's probably a smaller issue than Y2K, but I would still think along those lines.
predicted YES
@Sjlver It's a resource file, not code - they learned a (small) lesson from the Y2K days. The majority of programs which rely on it would propagate changes to it automatically, as well.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
god I hope not. Maybe I should be buying YES as a hedge, tbh.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
I'm not holding hopes for it happening
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Seems <50% as I share the prior others have of things not happening, though I'm a bit confused how it passed the Senate unanimously according to the article?
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Congress can barely agree to keep the government running.