It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that March 2022 was the last time change, that would also be a YES.
FAQ
1. What if only some states do this?
This is a prediction about what happens at the federal level. Individual states can opt out without affecting how this market resolves.
2. What if a law is passed but then it's reversed?
If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.
(Ask more questions in the comments! Or holler if anything above seems wrong.)
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@ChristopherRandles That would've been YES per FAQ 2.
PS: Oh, I see why this needed clarification, since it was originally about making it permanent starting in 2023. Anyway, moot now, since no law was passed at all!
Sounds like the bill is still kinda stalled, but has supporters. I'm guessing this isn't going to happen (but not confidently enough to be No at 0.5%).
If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.
@dreev How does this resolve if some states keep DST? The bill recently reintroduced in the Senate includes an exemption for Alaska and Hawaii. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-reintroduce-bill-make-daylight-saving-time-permanent-2023-03-02/
@mvdm oh wait disregard this, Alaska and Hawaii don’t have DST, the exemption would just keep them on standard time rather than switching to +1 time.
@NicoDelon Updated! I think I must've assumed this would've been decided one way or another by now. Clearly it hasn't been!
This article makes it sound like the bill has lost needed momentum: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3571007-permanent-daylight-saving-time-hits-brick-wall-in-house/