Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?
14%
chance
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/ It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that March 2022 was the last time change, that would also be a YES.
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citrinitas avatar
Anton
bought Ṁ17 of YES
dreev avatar
Kronopath avatar
Kronopath
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Related question on California specifically (which still resolves “Yes” if it happens at the national level): https://manifold.markets/Kronopath/will-california-abolish-daylight-sa
Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Is love to see this pass, but... Doesn't this require updating most operating systems in the world? Including your little router at home for which the admin password has long been lost? I'd expect more than a few months notice for such an important decision.
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting YES at 30%
@Sjlver Not really, no. There's basically a master list of all the complicated time zone shenanigans, of which DST is a subset, to which all (competently written) programs refer. Phasing DST out would just prompt a change to the list, and in theory most of the world's code needn't change.
Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
is predicting NO at 30%
@AndrewHartman agree, but isn't that list part of the OS? Or C runtime if you prefer... Anyway close enough to the OS that it's hard to upgrade. And you would still need to upgrade that on every device where you need local times. Think surveillance cameras, ATMs, door lock systems integrated into buildings, weather stations, ... It's probably a smaller issue than Y2K, but I would still think along those lines.
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman
is predicting YES at 30%
@Sjlver It's a resource file, not code - they learned a (small) lesson from the Y2K days. The majority of programs which rely on it would propagate changes to it automatically, as well.
Adam avatar
Adam
bought Ṁ20 of NO
god I hope not. Maybe I should be buying YES as a hedge, tbh.
upzonesocal avatar
upzone socal
bought Ṁ50 of NO
I'm not holding hopes for it happening
EliLifland avatar
Eli Lifland
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Seems <50% as I share the prior others have of things not happening, though I'm a bit confused how it passed the Senate unanimously according to the article?
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Congress can barely agree to keep the government running.
ScottOwens avatar
Scott Owens
bought Ṁ25 of NO
It's too my knowledge that it's up to the states to determine DST or not. I can't see this being popular in all states especially ones further North
the_snark avatar
Stephen
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Do I want this to happen? Yeah, I think so. But, as said above, change is hard. "The battles are so bitter because the stakes are so low", etc. etc. But clearly I'm not very convinced of that logic just yet.
CliveFreeman avatar
Clive Freeman
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Getting concensus for any change is ridiculously hard at the moment, regardless of the logic of any underlying arguments.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ10 of NO
mild hedge + change is hard
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
bought Ṁ1 of NO
My personal commentary is that this would suck for commuting to school in the morning in the winter. Our kids bike to school and there were a few weeks around winter solstice where it seemed too dark for that to be safe. With permanent DST it means school starting before dawn in the winter. (Also, just philosophically, how absurd is it to permanently change the clocks rather than change standard business hours? Like my whole pro-DST argument -- https://doc.beeminder.com/madhack#36 -- is that changing standard business hours earlier and later again every year is untenable. But if the public consensus is "business hours should just always start earlier so we have more daylight after work" then it's almost tragically hilarious that the best way to achieve that is to permanently redefine time itself rather than tamper with the apparently greater sanctity that is "Nine To Five". Maybe it's the Dolly Parton movie by that name that really locked us in there.)