Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?
Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?
239
430Ṁ55k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-bill-that-would-make-daylight-savings-time-permanent-2023-2022-03-15/

It sounds like the soonest this will happen is 2023, so March 2023 would be the last time Americans change their clocks. I'll resolve this to YES when that becomes certain. On the off chance that March 2022 was the last time change, that would also be a YES.

FAQ

1. What if only some states do this?

This is a prediction about what happens at the federal level. Individual states can opt out without affecting how this market resolves.

2. What if a law is passed but then it's reversed?

If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.

(Ask more questions in the comments! Or holler if anything above seems wrong.)

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1y

Given you are now off DST, if the bill is amended to make it permanent from March 2024 and signed into law by 31 Dec is that yes or no?

predictedYES

@ChristopherRandles That would've been YES per FAQ 2.

PS: Oh, I see why this needed clarification, since it was originally about making it permanent starting in 2023. Anyway, moot now, since no law was passed at all!

1y

Sounds like the bill is still kinda stalled, but has supporters. I'm guessing this isn't going to happen (but not confidently enough to be No at 0.5%).

https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4291107-daylight-saving-time-2023-why-attempts-to-make-observation-permanent-failed/

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bought Ṁ15 YES from 0.5% to 0.8% 1y
predictedNO 1y

@dreev please resolve :)

predictedNO 1y

@JonasVollmer

If a bill making DST permanent is signed into law in by December 31st, 2023 at midnight eastern time then this resolves YES. It doesn't matter what actually happens after that.

predictedNO 1y

@Radicalia ah, got it, I got confused by the close date

predictedYES 2y

Related

predictedNO 2y

The prior on the US government getting anything done is really low. Base rates

predictedNO 2y

@dreev How does this resolve if some states keep DST? The bill recently reintroduced in the Senate includes an exemption for Alaska and Hawaii. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senators-reintroduce-bill-make-daylight-saving-time-permanent-2023-03-02/

predictedNO 2y

@mvdm oh wait disregard this, Alaska and Hawaii don’t have DST, the exemption would just keep them on standard time rather than switching to +1 time.

predictedNO 2y

https://www.businessinsider.com/house-failed-vote-daylight-savings-time-permanent-sunshine-protection-act-2022-12?op=1

predictedNO 2y

Why is the close date 12/1?

predictedNO 2y

@NicoDelon Updated! I think I must've assumed this would've been decided one way or another by now. Clearly it hasn't been!

2y

arb https://manifold.markets/kolotom99/will-the-sunshine-protection-act-es

2y

This article makes it sound like the bill has lost needed momentum: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3571007-permanent-daylight-saving-time-hits-brick-wall-in-house/

3y
Related question on California specifically (which still resolves “Yes” if it happens at the national level): https://manifold.markets/Kronopath/will-california-abolish-daylight-sa
3y
Is love to see this pass, but... Doesn't this require updating most operating systems in the world? Including your little router at home for which the admin password has long been lost? I'd expect more than a few months notice for such an important decision.
predictedYES 3y
@Sjlver Not really, no. There's basically a master list of all the complicated time zone shenanigans, of which DST is a subset, to which all (competently written) programs refer. Phasing DST out would just prompt a change to the list, and in theory most of the world's code needn't change.
predictedNO 3y
@AndrewHartman agree, but isn't that list part of the OS? Or C runtime if you prefer... Anyway close enough to the OS that it's hard to upgrade. And you would still need to upgrade that on every device where you need local times. Think surveillance cameras, ATMs, door lock systems integrated into buildings, weather stations, ... It's probably a smaller issue than Y2K, but I would still think along those lines.
predictedYES 3y
@Sjlver It's a resource file, not code - they learned a (small) lesson from the Y2K days. The majority of programs which rely on it would propagate changes to it automatically, as well.
3y
god I hope not. Maybe I should be buying YES as a hedge, tbh.
3y
I'm not holding hopes for it happening
3y
https://newrepublic.com/article/165961/unlikely-success-permanent-daylight-saving-time-senate gives 60-40 odds
3y
Seems <50% as I share the prior others have of things not happening, though I'm a bit confused how it passed the Senate unanimously according to the article?
3y
Congress can barely agree to keep the government running.

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