Will we see AI take over at least 100,000 jobs by 2027?
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13
212
2027
75%
chance

Resolves Yes when 100,000 jobs are taken over by AI(before 2027). Resolves No if condition not t by 1/1/2027

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Worldwide? Including workers that were supposed to be hired or only existing ones that gets laid off?

how do you define “taken over”

means replace humans

@ShyamJayesh still not clear. do we need a drop in employment by 100k due to AI? how are you quantifying the replacement

Yes, we need to reduce jobs by 100k due to AI.

@ShyamJayesh what if AI replaces some number of jobs, but also creates some number of jobs, s.t the net change is that less than 100k jobs are lost

@ShyamJayesh how do you tell any given job has been replaced by AI?

@ashly_webb Net loss

@Bruno Humans should be fired and AI should be put in their place

@ShyamJayesh so an AI company outcompeting a human-employee company doesn't count?

@BrunoParga It counts if people lose jobs due to this

@ShyamJayesh How do you suppose you'll know that this has happened?

@BrunoParga Public Layoffs

@ShyamJayesh it doesn't sound like you're really thinking this through, what with the laconic responses and everything.

People get laid off all the time. You won't know that layoffs in company X are due to company Y doing things well with AI. Do you see that? Do you understand this fact, that you won't know that the crucial thing to resolve the market has happened?

@BrunoParga It has to be replaced by AI and ambiguous layoffs don't count