Sort of related: I thought everyone should see this: The members of the AI futures project have given an update and they appear to now be relying on the 80% time horizon length graph from METR for their predictions rather than the 50% time horizon length graph and their timelines have gotten longer. Here is there most recent update: https://open.substack.com/pub/aifutures1/p/ai-futures-model-dec-2025-update?r=6lp84s&utm_medium=ios. Daniel and Eli think that the scenario as laid out will basically be the same except that it will happen a few years later. Daniel pointed out that things appear to be 1 year behind the original scenario. As of right now Daniel thinks things will start to unfold in 2029 while Eli thinks things will start to unfold in 2030.

source?

the criteria of this question is unclear. Is this worldwide ?

Worldwide? Including workers that were supposed to be hired or only existing ones that gets laid off?

how do you define “taken over”

means replace humans

@ShyamJayesh still not clear. do we need a drop in employment by 100k due to AI? how are you quantifying the replacement

Yes, we need to reduce jobs by 100k due to AI.

@ShyamJayesh what if AI replaces some number of jobs, but also creates some number of jobs, s.t the net change is that less than 100k jobs are lost

@ShyamJayesh how do you tell any given job has been replaced by AI?

@ashly_webb Net loss

@Bruno Humans should be fired and AI should be put in their place

@ShyamJayesh so an AI company outcompeting a human-employee company doesn't count?

@BrunoParga It counts if people lose jobs due to this

@ShyamJayesh How do you suppose you'll know that this has happened?

@BrunoParga Public Layoffs

@ShyamJayesh it doesn't sound like you're really thinking this through, what with the laconic responses and everything.

People get laid off all the time. You won't know that layoffs in company X are due to company Y doing things well with AI. Do you see that? Do you understand this fact, that you won't know that the crucial thing to resolve the market has happened?

@BrunoParga It has to be replaced by AI and ambiguous layoffs don't count