Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Technology•AI

114

400

Ṁ16K

Ṁ1.6K

2026

37%

chance

ALL

This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market: > I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: > 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans > 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art > 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech > 4. A technological singularity, obviously > 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm

Nov 29, 5:10pm: ~~Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?~~ → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

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predicts YES

For comparison, chatgpt says the following industries are:

Gaming: 500 billion

Porn (what it called "sextech"): 40 billion, but hard to estimate, it said

Movies: 300 billion

Sports: 500 billion (surprises me it's more than movies)

Drinks: 3.5 trillion

So one way we can think of this prediction as being something like "as economically important as sports + gaming by end of 2025". This makes me update away from my YES buy. I'd buy YES for 100-500 billion by end of 2025.

W exactly dym under "impact"?

Still 5% of Gdp (a lot!) or 10% of Ukraine proxy war….

🤔

The heck is "sudden"?

predicts NO

@EliezerYudkowsky I think that phrasing was taken from my version of this market and the word "sudden" isn't adding anything. I guess it seemed more natural in my version since it's specifically about the impact happening by the following calendar year so no such thing as happening gradually in that timescale.

We can presumably say the same for this market. I agree it's confusing.

(In case we fix the titles and this dialog makes no sense, the original was "Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?")

predicts NO

@dreev is correct. I will fix the title this afternoon unless someone gives a reason not to by then.

predicts NO

Tesla at 10b cars, 10k FSD, would still only be 100B (and that’s with some aggressive cumulative math) Everything else is too small to hit escape velocity in 3.5yrs

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. (Trading at 50/50 on metaculus, three orders of magnitude lower dollars)

predicts NO

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/

bought Ṁ1 of YES

This is currently lower that https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, which is clearly wrong.

If measured in dollars this already happened in the aggregate increase in the value of Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and thousands of startups using AI in the products and more importantly their marketing. It is actually more like $3T over the last 2-3 years. I don't think dollars is the best way to resolve the things described.

@BrianEdwards Very astute point but, by the powers vested in me as Market Creator, I'm going to rule out that kind of industry-wide increase as it either doesn't count as sudden and/or isn't attributable to AI specifically. PS: Oh, wait, I'm not the Market Creator on this one, but @Forrest says they're using my criteria from the other market. I'm open to ideas for how to pin this down better and capture the spirit of the question about AI having a sudden massive impact.

bought Ṁ1,880 YES

@dreev I believe the >$1t rise in Nvidia's valuatiom meets those criteria as it is a single company and clearly attributable to AI. Do you have thoughts?

@RobertCousineau I think we need more than that but still thinking...

@RobertCousineau The growth in Nvidia’s stock isn’t actual impact, it’s a prediction of future impact. If you look at the resolution criteria, the key seems to be having a meaningful impact on the average person’s life, which AI definitely hasn’t met yet.

@Gabrielle Sounds exactly right. I'd love to get this nailed down tighter, but that's the spirit of the question.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

AI is on its way

Smart! Thanks for making this! I wasn't sure how to bet here but wanted to participate so I added a M$100 subsidy. Btw, as pointed out in the other market, we should probably scratch item 4 there and say that this market is conditional on money still having value. :)