Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Forrest

111

330

Ṁ13K

Ṁ1.6K

2026

36%

chance

ALL

This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023. For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me. For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market: > I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count: > 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans > 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art > 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech > 4. A technological singularity, obviously > 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm

Nov 29, 5:10pm: ~~Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?~~ → Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

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W exactly dym under "impact"?

Gigacasting

Still 5% of Gdp (a lot!) or 10% of Ukraine proxy war….

🤔

Eliezer Yudkowsky

The heck is "sudden"?

Daniel Reevespredicts NO

@EliezerYudkowsky I think that phrasing was taken from my version of this market and the word "sudden" isn't adding anything. I guess it seemed more natural in my version since it's specifically about the impact happening by the following calendar year so no such thing as happening gradually in that timescale.

We can presumably say the same for this market. I agree it's confusing.

(In case we fix the titles and this dialog makes no sense, the original was "Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?")

Forrestpredicts NO

@dreev is correct. I will fix the title this afternoon unless someone gives a reason not to by then.

Gigacastingpredicts NO

Tesla at 10b cars, 10k FSD, would still only be 100B (and that’s with some aggressive cumulative math) Everything else is too small to hit escape velocity in 3.5yrs

Gigacastingbought Ṁ5 of NO

Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. (Trading at 50/50 on metaculus, three orders of magnitude lower dollars)

Gigacastingpredicts NO

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/

Forrestbought Ṁ1 of YES

This is currently lower that https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, which is clearly wrong.

Brian T. Edwards

If measured in dollars this already happened in the aggregate increase in the value of Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and thousands of startups using AI in the products and more importantly their marketing. It is actually more like $3T over the last 2-3 years. I don't think dollars is the best way to resolve the things described.

Daniel Reeves

@BrianEdwards Very astute point but, by the powers vested in me as Market Creator, I'm going to rule out that kind of industry-wide increase as it either doesn't count as sudden and/or isn't attributable to AI specifically. PS: Oh, wait, I'm not the Market Creator on this one, but @Forrest says they're using my criteria from the other market. I'm open to ideas for how to pin this down better and capture the spirit of the question about AI having a sudden massive impact.

Ilyasbought Ṁ10 of YES

AI is on its way

Daniel Reeves

Smart! Thanks for making this! I wasn't sure how to bet here but wanted to participate so I added a M$100 subsidy. Btw, as pointed out in the other market, we should probably scratch item 4 there and say that this market is conditional on money still having value. :)