Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
36%
chance
This market is intended to use the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, but for 2025 instead of 2023.
For the sake of consistency with that market, I'll ask @dreev for a judgement if the resolution seems non-obvious to me.
For convenience, what follows is the description of the linked market:
> I'm picking "trillion+ dollar impact" as a proxy for "obviously life-changing for normal people". It need not count as human-level AI aka artificial general intelligence (AGI). Examples of things that would surely count:
> 1. Virtual assistants that are better than well-paid humans
> 2. Superhuman art, i.e., people tend to prefer to read / view / listen to AI-generated art
> 3. AI generating wholly new science/tech
> 4. A technological singularity, obviously
> 5. Level 5 self-driving cars or level 4 available mostly everywhere
Close date updated to 2026-01-01 11:59 pm
Forrest bought M$1 of YES2 days ago
This is currently lower that https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-have-a-sudden-trillion-doll, which is clearly wrong.
If measured in dollars this already happened in the aggregate increase in the value of Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and thousands of startups using AI in the products and more importantly their marketing. It is actually more like $3T over the last 2-3 years. I don't think dollars is the best way to resolve the things described.
@BrianEdwards Very astute point but, by the powers vested in me as Market Creator, I'm going to rule out that kind of industry-wide increase as it either doesn't count as sudden and/or isn't attributable to AI specifically.
PS: Oh, wait, I'm not the Market Creator on this one, but @Forrest says they're using my criteria from the other market. I'm open to ideas for how to pin this down better and capture the spirit of the question about AI having a sudden massive impact.
Ilyas bought M$10 of YES3 days ago
AI is on its way
Smart! Thanks for making this! I wasn't sure how to bet here but wanted to participate so I added a M$100 subsidy.
Btw, as pointed out in the other market, we should probably scratch item 4 there and say that this market is conditional on money still having value. :)