Millions of Teslas at level 3 autonomy in 2026?
11
100Ṁ422
Dec 31
41%
chance

On Tesla's April 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk said, "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year."

We'll count Musk's prediction as (close enough to) correct if, by the end of 2026, there are strictly greater than 1 million Teslas (robotaxis or not) operating at level 3 autonomy (human in the driver's seat but who doesn't have to actively supervise) with minimal restrictions on what roads or under what conditions the car self-drives.

Related Markets

[ignore any robo-clarifications below this line; I'll update the description above when we settle on clarifications]

Market context
Technology
AI
Technical AI Timelines
Tesla
Elon musk
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
46% chance
Will Tesla increase deliveries in 2026?
+3% 1d42% chance
Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?
44% chance
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
30% chance
Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?
-4% 1d48% chance
Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028?
-8% 1d22% chance
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?
80% chance
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
57% chance
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2026?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy