Millions of Teslas at level 3 autonomy in 2026?
10
100Ṁ4122026
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On Tesla's April 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk said, "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year."
We'll count Musk's prediction as (close enough to) correct if, by the end of 2026, there are strictly greater than 1 million Teslas (robotaxis or not) operating at level 3 autonomy (human in the driver's seat but who doesn't have to actively supervise) with minimal restrictions on what roads or under what conditions the car self-drives.
Related Markets
https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-tesla-count-as-a-waymo-competi
https://manifold.markets/dreev/when-will-i-be-able-to-read-a-book
[ignore any robo-clarifications below this line; I'll update the description above when we settle on clarifications]
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027
50% chance
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
47% chance
Will there be credible reports of more than 20 Tesla robotaxis in concurrent operation on Jul 1st 2025?
20% chance
Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
10% chance
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
Tesla Robotaxi Service at-fault accident or non-fully-autonomous by 2026?
81% chance
Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?
81% chance
Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?
27% chance
Will there be credible reports of more than 200 Tesla robotaxis in concurrent operation on Aug 1st 2025?
41% chance
Will Tesla achieve unsupervised FSD in 2025?
16% chance