What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2026?
7
240Ṁ1422027
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
29%
SAE 2
64%
SAE 3
4%
SAE 4
3%
SAE 5
For at least one publicly available model still being produced
Can be publicly used at this level
In the USA or Europe
Evalution is not well-defined but I will use the best combination of Tesla's claims + US/other country national or state administrators judgments
If the US, the area it is approved for is evaluated based on the entire state. (i.e. if one road is approved for SAE 4 but the rest of the state is SAE 3, then that counts as SAE 3)
But primarily will use actual accepted user behavior (i.e. if you can legally drive in that region at that SAE)
https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html
Currently Tesla is at level 2.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
32% chance
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
45% chance
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026
36% chance
Millions of Teslas at level 3 autonomy in 2026?
41% chance
Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026
27% chance
Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?
44% chance
Will Telsa have full unsupervised self-driving capabilities deployed in four cities by EOY
28% chance
Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
25% chance
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
45% chance
Tesla offers a car & mode where Tesla has legal liability for any damages that occur while self-driving by end 2026
7% chance