MANIFOLD
What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2026?
7
Ṁ240Ṁ142
2027
29%
SAE 2
64%
SAE 3
4%
SAE 4
3%
SAE 5

  1. For at least one publicly available model still being produced

  2. Can be publicly used at this level

  3. In the USA or Europe

  4. Evalution is not well-defined but I will use the best combination of Tesla's claims + US/other country national or state administrators judgments

  5. If the US, the area it is approved for is evaluated based on the entire state. (i.e. if one road is approved for SAE 4 but the rest of the state is SAE 3, then that counts as SAE 3)

  6. But primarily will use actual accepted user behavior (i.e. if you can legally drive in that region at that SAE)

https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html

Currently Tesla is at level 2.

The 6 Levels of Vehicle Autonomy Explained | Synopsys Automotive
Before merging onto roadways, self-driving cars will have to progress through 6 levels of driver assistance technology advancements. SAE defines 6 levels of driving automation ranging from 0 (fully manual) to 5 (fully autonomous). Learn more.
Market context
Self-Driving Vehicles
Tesla FSD
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
+3% 1d36% chance
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026
+4% 1d70% chance
Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
Will Telsa have full unsupervised self-driving capabilities deployed in four cities by EOY
28% chance
Millions of Teslas at level 3 autonomy in 2026?
41% chance
Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026
27% chance
Will tesla autopilot reach level 5 by the end of this decade?
44% chance
Will Tesla obtain an AV Driverless Testing or Deployment Permit from the CA DMV by the end of 2026
30% chance
Once level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
25% chance
Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy