Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
38
1.3kṀ78672026
90%
N = 100
87%
N = 500
81%
N = 1000
44%
N = 10,000
28%
N = 100,000
6%
N = 1,000,000
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
100
500
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft. It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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