Will a fully autonomous vehicle (Level 5) be commercially available to consumers by 2030?
10
100Ṁ391
2029
42%
chance

  • Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirms the market resolves YES if a Level 5 autonomous vehicle is commercially available to consumers under these conditions:

    • It can be in any region globally.

    • It can be of any sort of vehicle (e.g., passenger, freight, or other types), provided it is commercially available to consumers.

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bought Ṁ10 YES

@vonneumann by my reading, this could be in any region. That is, if the UAE allows sale and fully autonomous operation of any sort of vehicle (passenger, freight, whatever) to consumers, then it resolves yes.

Sound right?

@DanHomerick sounds right!

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