I'm guessing this will resolve as 'yes' for the option '@jim' but just in case you're still deliberating here's some more evidence of forecasting ability

• Won thousands of dollars from Manifold traders and hundreds of thousands of manas predicting Trump's victory

  

• Predicted AI IMO Gold by accurately projecting LLM time horizons

  

• Created a profitable bot in the span of ~30 minutes, proving that his bad track record was a matter of wisely using prediction markets as a feedback mechanism on loosely-held priors rather than a matter of poor forecasting ability @jimbot

  

• Wrote various prescient articles on AI, such as https://jamesoofou.substack.com/p/scaling-inference-time-reasoning-d38

any takers?

@Bayesian you can just self-sabotage by being really really mean

I guess I'm compelled to provide evidence to support my own case:

Forecasting Skill:

I'm currently 28th all time on the Manifold leaderboard, which puts me in 6th out of the 10 finalists (crazy competition). However, I'm also the 6th all-time winningest forecaster on Metaculus, despite only forecasting seriously on that platform for about 1.5 years:

On top of this, you can track another metric of my forecasting performance on my grobbles-flobbling market. I've been cited as a "prediction markets expert" in the Atlantic as well, for what it's worth.

Fun and Nice:

I organized the first ManifestX conference for fun! I'm very receptive to hijinks and I run a lot of "fun" markets. I also have a blog post I'm finishing up that should be out soon on why prediction markets need more Whimsy. Perhaps some of you will find it fun. I've met 6 out of the other 9 finalists, and have had fun with several of them, I believe. Also, this is fun: https://www.benshindel.com/manifest

Insider Trading:

I write the Manifold newsletter and have friends in high places in the Ukrainian, Israeli, and United State governments, so I have a high capacity for insider trading which I refrain from utilizing due to moral and ethical considerations. However, in legal and permissible cases on Manifold, a play-money platform, I have been known to insider trade.

@bens not gonna lie "I could totally insider trade but I choose not to" is probably harming your scoring on this axis

@bens lol that game is hilarious XD

Some amazing no-context extracts

@draaglom I will say, I did "insider trade" to some extent on my most profitable market (I think >70k mana in profit) about whether 250k federal employees would be laid off, in that I understood the terms of the DRP buyout that led to employees only coming off the books in the October data (which was delayed due to the shutdown). That's a lot of mana.

@draaglom Do you believe in your heart of hearts that this should be ranked?

@Quroe oh no definitely not haha

@mods Calling in a derank airstrike.

@Quroe I already tagged it w unranked but IDK if that's sufficient

@draaglom Us mere mortals do not have the powers of the gods. I don't think we can unrank unless the AI detects the question worthy of the special, official "unranked" tag during creation. The tag you have now is an imposter.

I'm the poorest mf on here but I'm nice lmao

@JustCallMeKeith I'll challenge the first half of that statement. 😆

See this user: @Tumbles

@Quroe LOL what the?! How is that even possible?!

@JustCallMeKeith Manifold has lore.

https://news.manifold.markets/p/financial-complex-stumbled-and-nuked

/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

@Quroe What an absolute mad man tumbles is.

@JustCallMeKeith He's pretty cool if you meet him in real life. He knew how to play up the audience too when I had him as a contestant on my game show at Manifest 2025.

/Quroe/nash-pit-manifest-2025-what-choice

@Quroe I wish there was a recording of that...

@realDonaldTrump Art is ethereal.

Every time I see a @Ziddletwix question, I smile.

@draaglom can you re-open betting for a couple days on the final 10? Or was the intention to close before they were announced?

@bens yeah you know what I'll give you guys a week

I'm rooting for @Quroe!

@realDonaldTrump Stiff competition, though. Manifold has too many cool people.