Most profitable Manifold user at end of 2026

375Ṁ2496

2026

57%

@SemioticRivalry

22%

Other

1.7%

1.3%

Measured by all-time profit

Note: the "@traders" and "@mods" options resolve NO.

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Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?

6% chance

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9% chance

Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?

27% chance

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68% chance

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Will a Manifold user reach 1 Million traders by EOY 2030

48% chance

My Manifold Net Worth exceeds 50,000 by end of 2025?

28% chance

Will I be in the top 50 on the Manifold traders leaderboard at the end of 2025?

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Semiotic is the lock of the millennium.

boughtṀ1 YES

That's not even a user, is it?

@4fa I believe the percentage difference between @traders and @ mods is supposed to represent the difference in their profitability. Please sell the NO

opened a Ṁ53 NO at 3% order

@Chumchulum What profitability?

@ItsMe Will this resolve according to https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?

opened a Ṁ1 YES at 2% order

@4fa I believe the average leaderboard profit per trader vs that of the mods.

@4fa I put it as a joke

@ItsMe it seems I can't N/A so I will probably resolve it NO. If anyone bet YES I can reimburse their losses

@ItsMe Yeah, currently you can only resolve the entire market, but maybe there will be a solution at some point: https://manifold.markets/SimonWestlake/when-will-i-successfully-add-the-ab (Although, not too soon, maybe. 😂)

When will the ability to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO be added?

When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%. This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets. Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected. It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong. The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site. I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares). I have a long list of higher priorities, and I haven't done a deep dive to determine the difficulty of this. However, I am an experienced software engineer who is very comfortable working in Typescript. Sister market about whether I in particular will submit such a change: https://manifold.markets/SimonWestlake/when-will-i-create-a-pr-to-allow-re Update 2025-09-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - It does not need to be my submission. Any implementation of this feature deployed on the site will resolve the relevant date range YES.

@ItsMe I assume @traders is also a joke? And probably you should only reimburse losses that were made before you said it's a joke, otherwise people might be incentivized to keep buying yes.

@ItsMe You said it was a joke at 7:11PM GMT, Oct 4th. I bought nearly all my shares of YES before that point, as with mods if that option is also a joke. Thank you so much.