Market Description
This market is a ranking competition in which animals are evaluated across three traits: Strength, Intelligence, and Likability.
Scoring System
For each trait, I will rank 10 selected animals.
Ranks 1 through 10 will earn 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points respectively.
An animal’s overall score is the sum of the points it receives across all three trait rankings.
The animal with the highest overall score will be declared the winner of this market.
While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.
Eligible Animals
At a cut-off time (to be announced), I will select the 10 animals that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.
Only these 10 selected animals will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.
Market will remain open for trading for a period of time to allow prices to settle down based on the 10 selected animal list.
Market Resolution
The market will resolve based on the animal that finishes with the highest overall score under the scoring system described above.
The market close date and cut-off date will be announced once finalized. The cut-off will likely be set with a buffer period to reduce last-minute sniping.
Notes:
If a subspecies appears superior to a general animal species, I may replace the existing option with that subspecies if traders suggest it.
(Example: I could replace “shark” with “great white shark” if it performs significantly better in Strength.)
I do not consider human an eligible option for this market
Orcas, the largest species of dolphin, have more cerebral cortex neurons than any other animal and are likely 2.5-4x stronger than elephants.
In detail:
Strength: A male orca can weigh more than 6 tons (a male African elephant weighs 5.2 to 6.9 tons, a similar amount) and have a length of 8 m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_elephant). An orca can jump fully out of the water to a height of 0.7 times its body length (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6451394/). Intuitively, it takes a massive amount of power to overcome water resistance and then lift 6 tons 5-6 m up into the air. Elephants physiologically cannot jump. Orcas can swim at speeds of 35 mph while elephants can only run at 16 mph (keep in mind that water is 800 times denser than air and provides much greater resistance) .
Claude Opus 4.5 with extended thinking estimates that an orca has roughly 2.5-4x the maximum power output of an elephant.(https://claude.ai/share/ff581047-0bb0-4547-9b70-cd906ecb6c97).Intelligence: Orcas have the most cerebral cortex neurons of any animal at around 43 billion, roughly twice the number that humans have (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_animals_by_number_of_neurons#Forebrain_(cerebrum_or_pallium)_only). That is 6 times as many as elephants, which have a similar body mass. (6 times as many as chimpanzees and 5 times as many as orangutans.)
Orcas have complex social structures, with 4 levels of groupings. They communicate using complex vocalizations, with different dialects in different groups of orcas due to the vocalizations being learned from other orcas. They also exhibit tool use, using stalks of kelp to groom other orcas. They coordinate as groups to hunt and also have been known to use fish as bait to capture birds. They pass the mirror test. Even more impressively, they teach skills (such as hunting techniques) to their kin; this is considered to be a kind of cultural transmission of knowledge. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca#Intelligence, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0376635701001346)Likability: Orcas are seen as playful and curious and were worshipped as gods by indigenous peoples of the Pacific Northwest region of the US (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca).
They are featured as the main attraction at orca shows at SeaWorld. These shows have been attended by 400 million visitors as of 2017 (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/seaworld-final-orca-show-california-killer-whales; perhaps they also count non-unique visitors). SeaWorld makes about $1.5 billion dollars in a typical year (https://companiesmarketcap.com/seaworld-entertainment/revenue/), and orcas are by far the most well-known attraction. If we conservatively estimate that 15% of SeaWorld’s revenue is attributable to orcas (considering precipitous revenue decline after negative publicity from the movie Blackfish over concern about possible mistreatment of orcas), orcas’ likability generates over $220 million per year in this example alone.
Orcas have been featured in movies such as the 1993 blockbuster Free Willy (which generated $153 million in box office revenue, or $344 million when adjusted for inflation) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Willy, https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm) and its sequels ($488 million, adjusted for inflation, if you count Free Willy and Free Willy 2). These films feature a boy's efforts to free a captive orca. See other examples from popular culture: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orcas_in_popular_culture.
@Xiphias elephants, specifically the African elephant are stronger than orcas. Intelligence is pretty close, but even were orcas to win that elephants are going to beat out orcas by multiple tiers depending on the finalists
@Magnify score in each category are based on the animals’ relative ranking in the category. If raven is the most intelligent animal in the list, followed by chimpanzee, then raven get 10 points and chimpanzee get 9 points. Does that clarify your question?
@AmmonLam its memory is legendary compared to other animals, remembering bonds with humans over decades apart. There’s a whole trope of “memory of an elephant”
Beyond that, they exhibit tool usage, foresight and creativity. There are elephants that paint, they use branches as fly swatters, they preserve water by building containers of stone. They pass the mirror test, and have a (rudimentary perhaps compared with humans) language system. They also understand human body language and showcase empathy.
The current zeitgeist around chimps is that they are unlikable monsters, but I urge you to ignore what people say about them. Chimps have been known to engage in horrible violence yes, but they are very peaceful compared to many animals like elephants and orcas.
Elephants kill hundreds of people every year, and males routinely undergo musth, in which they are highly aggressive towards other elephants, humans, and other animals. Elephants have been known to kill and sexually assault rhinos.
Orcas are vicious and have been known to hunt and kill other animals for fun. They have also been known to "play with" and torture their prey before killing them.
Chimps (tied with bonobos) are the most intelligent nonhuman animals, but yet are much more peaceful than us. Over decades of study, a few chimps have fought a few wars. One study accumulating as much prior research as possible has identified 152 chimp killings, from 426 researcher years of study. Only 58 were actually observed. Sure chimps kill a few humans every year, but those are almost all from conflicts between threatened chimp communities and expanding human communities, in which many more chimps are killed than humans. And regarding attacks by captive chimps, these chimps are mostly mistreated and captivity and are not fully to blame for their actions. I could go into so much further detail talking about individual cases like Travis the Chimp, and how he was a victim, if you want me to. But I think I've said enough.
If you want I can post more sources.
https://www.science.org/content/article/why-do-chimps-kill-each-other
And regarding replacing general animal categories with specific, perhaps Bonobos would fare better as they are so much more peaceful than even chimps, with similar intelligence (but different in a few aspects) and slightly less strength. Though Bonobos aren't exactly a type of chimp. They are sister species and Bonobos used to be considered a subspecies.
@FecalAbhuman even if you put chimps just above elephants in terms of both intelligence and likability, the strength difference will crush it