Will Finland recognize a state of Palestine before 2030
86
8.3k
2029
29%
chance

Resolves YES if this wikipedia page shows Finland as having recognized the state of Palestine diplomatically, before EOY 2029.

EDIT: the article must settle and remain, a malicious edit will not resolve the market. I reserve the right to change the resolution condition in the case of the linked wikipedia article structurally changing, wikipedia becoming less trustworthy or suffering wide disinformation attacks, or any other reason that significantly undermines the spirit of the market.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

2024 arb here

Genuinely interested in the rationale of YES bettors; you think Finland will follow suit with other European countries recently recognizing Palestine - out of peer pressure if nothing else?

My rationale for NO - and I would bet this way lower than 33% if I could afford to tie more mana into the market - is that comparatively Finland has had significant military co-operation with Israel for decades; including but not limited to: co-operation in small arms development, purchases from subcontractors, and a planned future purchase of the 'David's Sling' missile defense system.

Additionally, President Niinistö has stated in 2014, when asked about Sweden's efforts to recognize Palestine, that such a move is not planned, and that Finland supports a two-state-solution as a requirement for the recognization of the state of Palestine. I do not anticipate such a solution by 2030.

While the current conflict has greatly affected the opinion of the general public, I see no real change in the opinions of the main parties/political powers.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 31% to 34%

@dgga I voted no but I don’t put as much weight on the political parties. They’ll flip on a dime when the public opinion shifts.

To me the key factors are how long the conflicts lasts and who (and when) replaces Netanyahu

bought Ṁ50 NO

@dgga I think buying YES at 30% is justifiable for a market that closes in 2030 if you really want to watch the market. Not for the outcome, but I would heavily suspect that more YES buyers will buy it up to some number above 40% in the future.

More related questions