Genuinely interested in the rationale of YES bettors; you think Finland will follow suit with other European countries recently recognizing Palestine - out of peer pressure if nothing else?

My rationale for NO - and I would bet this way lower than 33% if I could afford to tie more mana into the market - is that comparatively Finland has had significant military co-operation with Israel for decades; including but not limited to: co-operation in small arms development, purchases from subcontractors, and a planned future purchase of the 'David's Sling' missile defense system.

Additionally, President Niinistö has stated in 2014, when asked about Sweden's efforts to recognize Palestine, that such a move is not planned, and that Finland supports a two-state-solution as a requirement for the recognization of the state of Palestine. I do not anticipate such a solution by 2030.

While the current conflict has greatly affected the opinion of the general public, I see no real change in the opinions of the main parties/political powers.

@dgga I voted no but I don’t put as much weight on the political parties. They’ll flip on a dime when the public opinion shifts.

To me the key factors are how long the conflicts lasts and who (and when) replaces Netanyahu

@dgga I think buying YES at 30% is justifiable for a market that closes in 2030 if you really want to watch the market. Not for the outcome, but I would heavily suspect that more YES buyers will buy it up to some number above 40% in the future.