According to a recent gallup 41% of Finnish people think that Finland should recoginze Palestine, 17% opposes and 42% are unsure.

https://www.hs.fi/suomi/art-2000010585770.html

Yet not even a citizens' initiative has been put forwards (and the one demanding the end of arms deals with Israel has stagnated). Despite the polls and the constant social media outrage, no one seems to be interested enough in this subject to actually engage politically.

As for the politicians, Stubb has basically just reiterated Niinistö's position: a lasting peace and a 2-state-solution first. Same for the Foreign Minister, who would most likely be the one bringing the motion forwards to Stubb.

Maybe in 2028 if the Left Alliance or the Greens get the foreign ministry? Even then, especially with the pressure from the East escalating, I cannot see Stubb pissing off Israel for irrelevant virtue points among leftists until the David's Sling order is done and dealt with.

Edit: For those who don't know, recognizing a state requires Presidential approval in Finland and the sitting President has the power to infinitely veto such a process.

2024 arb here

Genuinely interested in the rationale of YES bettors; you think Finland will follow suit with other European countries recently recognizing Palestine - out of peer pressure if nothing else?

My rationale for NO - and I would bet this way lower than 33% if I could afford to tie more mana into the market - is that comparatively Finland has had significant military co-operation with Israel for decades; including but not limited to: co-operation in small arms development, purchases from subcontractors, and a planned future purchase of the 'David's Sling' missile defense system.

Additionally, President Niinistö has stated in 2014, when asked about Sweden's efforts to recognize Palestine, that such a move is not planned, and that Finland supports a two-state-solution as a requirement for the recognization of the state of Palestine. I do not anticipate such a solution by 2030.

While the current conflict has greatly affected the opinion of the general public, I see no real change in the opinions of the main parties/political powers.

@dgga I voted no but I don’t put as much weight on the political parties. They’ll flip on a dime when the public opinion shifts.

To me the key factors are how long the conflicts lasts and who (and when) replaces Netanyahu

@dgga I think buying YES at 30% is justifiable for a market that closes in 2030 if you really want to watch the market. Not for the outcome, but I would heavily suspect that more YES buyers will buy it up to some number above 40% in the future.