Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030?
4
35
485
2030
86%
chance

Resolves based on whether the wikipedia page "State of Palestine" uses the past tense, as in "The State of Palestine was..." instead of the current "The State of Palestine is..."

I will also use common sense to avoid vandalism etc and to resolve the question of whether it still exists but the present/past tense is the main criteria by which I will judge the question in order to avoid controversy.

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