When will an AI-assisted bio-attack first result in at least 1,000,000 deaths?
Basic
41
4.0k
2046
1%
Now - 2025
6%
2025-2030
14%
2030-2035
6%
2035-2040
6%
2040-2045
67%
Never or after or including 2045

• The date will be the date of the release of the pathogen, not the date when it causes the deaths. This may require a delay in the resolution of the market. Similarly, establishing the cause of such a pandemic may require some delay to the resolution of the market.
• Market will be resolved according to official deaths (even though there are known issues with these figures)

• Whether an incident was AI-assisted or not will be resolved based upon on an official government investigation into the incident. Claims from a government that is unreliable will be disregarded.
• I just realised that I didn't actually manage to make the years unambiguous. So the period 2030-2035 includes 2030, but ends at the start of 2035. "Never or after 2045" actually means after the beginning of 2045.

Happy to further clarify the resolution criteria.

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Seems hard to confirm in the most probable cases. What about gain-of-function research by a lab, aided by some machine learning technique (which is already pretty standard) followed by a leak? One would then need to ascribe intention to the leaker..

An accidental lab-leak wouldn't count as a bio-attack.

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