https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME

The Sahm indicator is a US recession indicator, equal to the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate, and the minimum 3-month average unemployment rate in the preceding 12 months. It is a measure of how rapidly unemployment is increasing.

The Sahm rule says that when this indicator is above 0.5 percentage points, this indicates a recession.

The "real-time" Sahm indicator is the Sahm indicator based on initial unemployment data releases, not taking into account revisions.

This market will resolve YES if the real-time Sahm indicator as shown on FRED has a value above 0.5 percentage points at any time in 2023 or 2024.

Data releases pertaining to 2023-2024 but releaased in e.g. 2025 will not count. The indicator itself as shown on FRED must read 0.5 pp or higher in 2023 or 2024 for the market to resolve YES.

Market with shorter timeframe:
/chrisjbillington/will-the-realtime-sahm-rule-recessi