What is Manifold's P(doom) (Will resolve to a %)
9
280แน€221
resolved Apr 18
Resolved as
26%

I will conduct a poll to gauge Manifold's P(doom) after this market closes. This market will resolve to the average P(doom) of that poll

Related markets:

This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv

End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3

Will resolve to the outcome of this poll

AI
AI Doom
Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€7
2แน€5
3แน€4
4แน€1

People are also trading

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
35% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
What is your P(doom)?
POLL
What's the p(doom) of monkeys?
13% chance
Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
55% chance
Sort by:

Here is the poll https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-your-pdoom?r=Y2hyaXM

I will create the poll Apr 12.

just make the poll

@Jono3h I don't want the poll to influence the outcome of the market

bought แน€76 NO

Resolving to %, how does this work here?

@TheWabiSabi I will put a poll with options 0%, 10%, 20%, etc.

I'll take a weighted avg of the votes, and then resolve this market to that %

People are also trading

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
35% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
What is your P(doom)?
POLL
What's the p(doom) of monkeys?
13% chance
Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
55% chance
ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy