This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United Kingdom's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report. If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
If the United Kingdom's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
There's an election in May, it doesn't affect which government we have, it doesn't affect the one per country representative involved in the government, it affects local councillors of whom there are quite a few per county. Local councillors do though often have a party affiliation, like they can be a Green Party one, or a Reform UK one.
If we've ever (in the last few decades) had a nationalist party get a single 1 per county seat in an election, it's only been one, and even just that is very rare. Now very suddenly those parties have grouped up into one mega nationalist party called Reform UK, at the same time as Labour and the Conservative parties have fallen politically off the map. Politically overnight they might win a general election, with a majority.
Local councillors decide things like:
Bin collections and recycling
Local roads and potholes
Libraries and leisure centres
Planning permission for buildings
Council tax levels (partly)
After this, the next shake up doesn't happen this year.
So for me the question is, if Reform UK make big gains in May, how much regression can they realistically cause, bearing in mind they may not follow the business as usual rules. It's about what actually ends up happening and not getting reverted, and then what even temporary changes allow to happen after that, not about what's supposed to be allowed or what's happened before.
Maybe:
• Pay us and we'll never say no to your planning permission request however against the rules it is.
• Tax reduction, oh no the government is defunded and closed due to a shortfall.
• Priority system that makes areas we don't like never be a priority and so never get road renewal.
• Making it as hard as possible for people growing up now to go to university.
• Removal/destruction of perfectly functional council provided cycling 🚴♂️ infrastructure, that will cost money for future councillors to replace.
• "Fend for yourself unless you pay us a tip or live in an area that votes for us" level bin collection service.
• Massive attack on the viability of privately owned green energy infrastructure, where it retroactively looses planning permission as fast as they can make that happen.
• Institutional racism, if there's a way for them to express it, and make the system express it, then that's guaranteed, it's the whole platform on which the entire party stands.
• Poll station chaos, but that's after the end of this market. It's supposed to be in the city hall today, oh what a mix up the building is closed today so you cant vote against us.