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MANIFOLD
Will the world become more authoritarian in 2026?
6
Ṁ1kṀ145
2027
56%
chance

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the world average democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report. If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.

If the world average democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.

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2018 – 5.48

2019 – 5.44

2020 – 5.37

2021 – 5.28

2022 – 5.29

2023 – 5.23

2024 – 5.17

Is this correct?

2025 – approx 5.17 (no full recalculation published yet; same global aggregate carried forward in 2025 edition reporting)

I don't understand this explanation.

It'd be interesting to see what countries are avoid being very dictatorial/authoritarian, and at the same time are also score very low for on being democratic. Technocratic, but orderly and pleasant. I want two axis. 十

North Korea scores 1.08, and Afghanistan scores 0.25, things must be very bad there to do 4 times worse.