Looking to see if congress went into recess, for senate I found
Dec 15Target Adjournment
Just wondering if this makes a shutdown impossible enough for this claim to be resolved?

@cash

@ChristopherRandles Thanks for the question! The answer is I'll be keeping it open until the year ends and resolve no if no shutdown has happened (see comment here for same thing responding to a similar question).

Hi! Thanks everyone for participating in this question! I will be leaving this question open until end-of-year EST and resolve NO at that time, unless a shutdown occurs before then (however unlikely that now appears).

@cash

I’m happy to put in some big honkin limit orders if people want to get their money out

How exactly did it drop from 39% to 4% here?

@NoyaV Lots of missing trades it looks like

@NoyaV A lot of Semiotic, BTE, and myself

@NoyaV that's the question i have been asking myself for couple months. Almost every market i participated in had such invisible jumps.

I was talking to my dad yesterday, he works for the US government, and he said that guys were talking yesterday that the likelihood of a shutdown has decreased and they don't have to worry about missing paychecks. So that's a good thing, Christmas is saved!

@FredBush YASS!

@FredBush Dear Fred, tell the guys to get their shit together: https://manifold.markets/cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd#32MZvFtekPHG0jeUZ7if

Fred's dad has seen enough!

@FredBush You kill me!! 🤣

@Joshua He's on fire! https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-sweden-join-nato-before-2024#QI32I6sIYAN3ZDNiabzR

Same Market but for next year as this seems to have wrapped up.

Limit orders for yes up at 1% for anyone who wants to sell for non-zero mana!

@cash if biden signs a law extending government funding to 2024, do you plan to resolve immediately or wait until january?

Seconding this question. Does anyone know a way the government could shut down after the CR becomes law? I'm pretty sure it's impossible.

Edit: Maybe not impossible, but it's as certain as resolving a market about an election after the election is called, instead of waiting until months later for certification/swearing in. Unless I'm missing something?

@SemioticRivalry Thanks for the question! Answered here.

Lesson learned. I bet 2k in once again another Capitol Hill market I have no edge. But as it drop 14% (my thesis was that people would start panicking) I zeroed without any regard for liquidity. Lost the ring, but no the fingers.

This market has been so much fun! Anyone up for round 2, when the CR runs out?

💘