https://www.foxnews.com/politics/largest-house-gop-group-unveils-proposal-to-avert-government-shutdown-amid-spending-chaos

Vote on the CR tomorrow…. And a proposed amendment to make it more likely to pass the house but not the senate..

“even if it passes the House, Hern’s CR is likely to hit a wall in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Appropriators there are working toward a funding level set by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden’s debt limit deal, roughly $120 billion higher than the new proposal.”

its_happening.gif

Are there any markets on whether it will be a full or partial shutdown?

~10-11 days for a short term continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/11/government-shutdown-congress-house-funding/70817756007/

But given that McCarthy today has caved and launched an impeachment inquiry, I think it should be easier to get everyone on board to stop a shutdown of the government, at least until December, at which point I have to go by historical rates (which I found different numbers for the numbers of shutdowns ... I'm using 20 shutdowns in 50 years = 40%)

Congress has just 11 days to fund the government: Here's how a shutdown would impact you

Congress has just 11 legislative days to fund the government and avert a shutdown. Here's how a government shutdown could affect you.

What happened today?

https://apnews.com/article/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-spending-mccarthy-fc01dd72a6a0e3c25683b9669ec351cf

Government shutdown warnings rise as Republicans seek deeper cuts in budget battle

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s bid to appease hard-liners in his caucus and get the House moving again has some Democratic worried about the road ahead when it comes time to passing legislation to keep the government running. Republicans left Washington in early June unable to approve a routine proc…

I just bought "yes," but I'm really at more like 50/50 on this question.

Glad to see the optimism here, but I think this is underpriced at 15%. The "auto-CR" provision in the debt ceiling bill isn't literally an "automatic" CR — instead, it applies cuts to the CR if one ends up being passed. And judging by recent events, McCarthy may have a hard time getting a clean CR through the House covering all government departments before at least a technical government shutdown.

@octothorpe have a look at "related markets".. Optimism everywhere