Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2023?
closes Jan 1

The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019 during the Trump administration. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown again in 2023 for any amount of time?

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parhizj avatar
JRPbought Ṁ15 of YES


Vote on the CR tomorrow…. And a proposed amendment to make it more likely to pass the house but not the senate..

“even if it passes the House, Hern’s CR is likely to hit a wall in the Democrat-controlled Senate. Appropriators there are working toward a funding level set by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden’s debt limit deal, roughly $120 billion higher than the new proposal.”

Rachell avatar
Rachelbought Ṁ100 of YES


MaybeNotDepends avatar

Are there any markets on whether it will be a full or partial shutdown?

parhizj avatar
JRPbought Ṁ29 of NO

~10-11 days for a short term continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown:


But given that McCarthy today has caved and launched an impeachment inquiry, I think it should be easier to get everyone on board to stop a shutdown of the government, at least until December, at which point I have to go by historical rates (which I found different numbers for the numbers of shutdowns ... I'm using 20 shutdowns in 50 years = 40%)

LeonardoKr avatar
Leonardopredicts NO

What happened today?

belikewater avatar
belikewaterbought Ṁ50 of YES

I just bought "yes," but I'm really at more like 50/50 on this question.

octothorpe avatar
octothorpepredicts YES

Glad to see the optimism here, but I think this is underpriced at 15%. The "auto-CR" provision in the debt ceiling bill isn't literally an "automatic" CR — instead, it applies cuts to the CR if one ends up being passed. And judging by recent events, McCarthy may have a hard time getting a clean CR through the House covering all government departments before at least a technical government shutdown.

1 reply
LeonardoKr avatar
Leonardopredicts NO

@octothorpe have a look at "related markets".. Optimism everywhere

ManifoldDream avatar

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