The United States has a history of government shutdowns. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few hours and did not furlough government workers, and so would not count.
This question resolves YES if a government shutdown involving furloughed workers happens on or between 1 Jan 2025 and 31 Dec 2025, and otherwise resolves NO when the year ends (midnight EST).
Update: A shutdown must begin in 2025 to count for this market. A shutdown that begins in 2024 and continues into 2025 will not count.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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I don't think it won't but the money i'd make if this only lasts a few hours🤑
@geuber i’ve lost like 10k mana from betting no on something like 2%, this would be incredible karma
@geuber if you've been wrong on 2% YES bids or wrong on 98% NO bids 49 times in a row then I will absolutely bet NO on this right now. just say the word, big dog
@No_uh you underestimate my power. it was one market that i lost that in. i’m 954th for biggest loss. also, apparently it was just 8k, but it felt like more at the time lol
Remember a few government shutdowns ago when there were a handful of Republicans that were super eager about causing a government shutdown because it would mean they'd be able to "halt government spending" or some shit, figuring they'd be able to blame the Democrats but then fucking up and saying all of that out loud? This feels like that, but with those guys now properly media trained. Trump puts down some unreasonable demand that Dems won't move on (full ban on federal funding to hospitals that provide any trans healthcare to anyone of any age, amongst other things), thinking he'll be able to blame the Dems (despite past evidence that no, he won't), with the actual goal of using it to fire people he wanted to fire in such a way that the Supreme Court might be willing to overlook a pretty blatant form of illegal impoundment. It's a win-win scenario - either they get Dems to cave to their unreasonable demands, or they get to fire a ton of people. I feel like they want to do a little tiny shutdown just to get to the firings, thinking if it's just a quick one, they'll be able to slip it past the public without their poll numbers dipping much further.
@Marnix I'm glad somebody said it.
Granted, I'm on the record as being wrong. I don't think I'll ever recover.
@Quroe I'm starting to think I might have been wrong about them wanting it to be a short one, to be honest. They're already saying they won't come back in until after Yom Kippur.