Will there be a US government shutdown before Valentine's Day 2024?
resolved Jan 19

The latest continuing resolution extends government funding until early 2024.

Will the US government shut down for any amount of time before Valentine's Day?

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predicted NO

And we're done!

If you want to bet on whether it happens in march, next market is here:

bought Ṁ0 of NO

If Biden signs the CR, the government will be funded past Valentine's Day and it will be impossible for this market to resolve Yes unless all of Congress(both parties) goes insane and passes a new bill that shuts down the government on purpose. So once Biden signs, I intend to resolve this market to No.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

@Joshua sorry for being late, but what was the issue with waiting until Feb 14 to resolve ?

bought Ṁ300 of NO
bought Ṁ1,082 of NO

Looks like we're probably getting extension of debt-settling until mid-March. The Romans would approve!


A lot of chaos on the hill today

sold Ṁ29 of NO

@Joshua So we have 13 holdouts. As I see it, Johnson can:

  1. Go across the aisle

  2. Try to convince the holdouts (lol)

  3. Negotiate a new agreement with Biden that will win over the holdouts (lol)

  4. Shut down the government

Is there an option I'm missing, or is this thing really dependent on Johnson's willingness to fall on his sword?

predicted YES

@VerySeriousPoster Seems right. It's option 1 or bust.The same story keeps coming up again and again around these shutdowns. It all goes down to whether the holdouts are willing to threaten Johnson with the same thing they did to McCarthy, and if they do, who wins the game of chicken.

predicted YES

@Shump In games of chicken I'd assume the thirteen will win. Obstinance was rewarded during the initial McCarthy votes, obstinance was rewarded during the McCarthy succession, and so they have reason to assume refusing to vote for a bill Biden would be willing to sign is a winning hand. Johnson seems aware that shutting down the government is politically unwise for the party, but it's less clear if it's in his self interest to cater to the right's demands. There have been plenty of reports that the party's center is tired of these shenanigans, is there a point where they break with Johnson if he allows a shutdown?

predicted YES

@VerySeriousPoster I disagree that obstinance is rewarded. The Republicans who booted McCarthy didn't manage to achieve any of their goals, and they understood that they cannot hold the entire Republican party by the balls on their own. If they depose Johnson they're back to the same chaos as before and they won't achieve anything.

predicted YES

@Shump I see your point in that they're no closer to getting their stated policy goals enacted. I think we're categorizing "rewarded" differently. In my view putting knives in McCarthy and anyone else who smelled like the establishment (@Scalise) was the goal of the last two debacles... that and the chaos was a way of getting attention. On that front they were arguably successful. I'm dubious they're genuinely acting in accordance with a desire to get their policies enacted, but I may be wrong on that front.

predicted NO


"Congressional leaders announce an agreement on spending levels, a key step to averting shutdown"

bought Ṁ100 of NO
repostedpredicted YES
bought Ṁ25 of YES

We could have another round of chaos coming up soon:

bought Ṁ15 of NO

This one should be waaaay lower, there's no budgeting between this Friday and V-day.

Is the information in the market description screenshot incorrect about when funding runs out? Or am I misunderstanding something more fundamental?

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@Joshua My mistake, I thought that was of an already shot-down proposal.

sold Ṁ15 of NO

For arbitrage:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Honestly I'm not sure how a shutdown will work with the funding for different things running out at different times. Has this ever happened before?

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