@creator @cash resolved their 2024 market NO. I think you should do the same here. Thanks!

I have no shares here, gonna close until OP/cash issues a clarification

This is really confusing because this market has the exact same wording as the Marcus Abramovitch market, which the admins resolved as YES

ngl this comment is kinda weird considering you were fighting the good fight in the other market, implying you understand well that the market admins resolved was the sweepcash one and that they added a clarification/wording change. (I acknowledge I myself called that an identically worded market but I was talking about my comment which regarded only the mana market)

@wan Yes, I'm saying it's confusing how this site can have such a bad clarification that two markets with the exact same wording can have one resolve YES and the other close at 4%

I do have a YES position in this market if that's what you mean, but that's because I was arbitraging my NO position with the Marcus market. I don't think this market should resolve YES, since I also didn't think the other one should resolve YES.

@spiderduckpig other resolved N/A, this one probably should too.

I just copied Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2023? because no one had made a shutdown market for 2024 yet. I have absolutely no opinion on what should count as a shutdown. @cash I said this market would be an exact copy of your market (except for 2024), how would you resolve this?

@justifieduseofFallibilism I know the manifold admins are currently deliberating about how to resolve the identically-worded Marcus Abramovich market, so if I were you I'd wait until they resolve that one and resolve this one the same way (assuming you agree that is worded in the same way as this one). Disclosure: I have a stake in these two markets resolving the same way, but I think the point stands anyway.

@justifieduseofFallibilism I’m not aware of any market across the entire site that resolved YES after the similar events in March. Here’s a major market with all the arguments for and against that was ultimately resolved to no shutdown in March. I don’t see it on @cash’s 2023 description, but his 2024 description helpfully rules out anything that doesn’t involve furloughing government workers. The only reason I can see that the Marcus market will be resolving YES is because of the late addition to the sweeps market of a “clarification” that made a missed deadline the source of resolution rather than any actual shutdown. I think that’s unfortunate, but that ship has sailed. I think it would be worse to compound that by making that late and quite frankly not very thoughtful clarification the source of truth for all the other shutdown markets.

surely this has to resolve yes because of the funding gap in march right?

@yktv or at least has to resolve the same way as the marcus abramovitch market

>Will the US government shutdown again in 2024 for any amount of time?

Is this pricing in technical shutdowns? Where the government shuts down for a few hours because Biden doesn't sign the bill until Saturday morning?

@spiderduckpig I think the market creator buying NO after the funding gap in March and not resolving proves no. PS I see the (likely) current situation as a "funding gap" according to the wiki linked in the description

My full thoughts on this matter as a comment on an identically worded market: https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c#pq2y26xgu1

@wan how could it be that this market resolves differently than that market without being misleading? I built up a sizable arbitrage position which is doing terribly right now.

@yktv I think both should resolve NO, I still support everything that I have said. My big post explains my reasoning for why it's NO.

This message is supplementive to why I think March and now are not shutdowns.

https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c#kwlz3gnd5js

And this message is my response to the "clarification" that apparently changed everything.

https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c#j8jpmgswdul

Just because some house rep coined a new term "technical shutdown" to mean a gap in funding, doesn't mean the criteria for these markets should be retroactively changed.

BUT, if manifold admins are meddling with the other market and Marcus, being the creator, agrees or doesn't care, this market is still decided by its own creator.

House Speaker Johnson said: “You’ve got shutdowns and you've got real shutdowns. A shutdown for many hours over Saturday doesn’t actually impact the lives of any human being living on the planet. “

Will all the shutdown markets treat an hours long shutdown that doesn't really have an impact as a shutdown?

Elon is voicing what looks like support for the new bill.

For arbitrage: